Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Estadio de Bata, Bata

Equatorial Guinea

1 - 0

Liberia

Our Tip

Match Events

34'

Salvador I.

(Penalty)

61'

Sub

Sackor T. In: Ernest E.

Out: Sackor T.

61'

Sub

Wilson P. In: Sesay S.

Out: Wilson P.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Equatorial Guinea in this Africa Cup of Nations 2025 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Equatorial Guinea

20%

Draws

40%

Liberia

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence

Form's been kind to Equatorial Guinea lately — more wins on the board than Liberia.
36% — that's where the model lands on Equatorial Guinea taking it.
Equatorial Guinea have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Equatorial Guinea, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 44%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%

Equatorial Guinea Clean Sheet 68%

Liberia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Equatorial Guinea	Liberia
Matches Played	27	24
Wins	7	6
Draws	7	8
Losses	13	10
Goals Scored	0.78	0.96
Goals Conceded	1.22	1.46
Expected Goals (xG)	0.69	0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 13, 2025 World Championship

Equatorial Guinea vs Liberia

1:1

Oct 14, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Liberia vs Equatorial Guinea

1:2

Oct 11, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Equatorial Guinea vs Liberia

1:0

Nov 20, 2023 World Championship

Liberia vs Equatorial Guinea

3:0

Jul 21, 2019 Friendly International

Equatorial Guinea vs Liberia

1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Equatorial Guinea 46 / 100

Liberia 44 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Equatorial Guinea Liberia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 0:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Liberia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 24 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Liberia has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Equatorial Guinea found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (27 games).

Scoring Trends

Equatorial Guinea VS Liberia

0.5 Goals Scored 0.63

1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88

50% Over 1.5 38%

25% Over 2.5 25%

13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Equatorial Guinea

(Home)

09 Jun

Equatorial Guinea

0 : 1

Comoros

31 Mar

Equatorial Guinea

1 : 1

Madagascar

25 Mar

Kyrgyzstan

0 : 1

Equatorial Guinea

31 Dec

Equatorial Guinea

1 : 3

Algeria

28 Dec

Equatorial Guinea

0 : 1

Sudan

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Liberia

(Away)

09 Jun

Liberia

3 : 1

Sierra Leone

06 Jun

Sierra Leone

1 : 0

Liberia

31 Mar

Liberia

2 : 2

Libya

27 Mar

Benin

1 : 0

Liberia

15 Nov

Guinea

2 : 0

Liberia

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