Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Erbil vs Al Minaa

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026 Franso Hariri Stadium, Arbil
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Abdulrahim M.
40' Event
Temirov S.
74' Event
Temirov S.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Erbil in this Stars League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Erbil.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Erbil
30%
Draws
27%
Al Minaa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Erbil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Erbil have won more games recently than Al Minaa.
  • Erbil are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Erbil Clean Sheet 68%
Al Minaa Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erbil Al Minaa
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 17 7
Draws 8 10
Losses 3 11
Goals Scored 1.61 1
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Minaa
2:0
Mar 13, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Minaa
3:2
Sep 20, 2025 Stars League
Al Minaa vs Erbil
1:3
Mar 7, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Minaa
0:1
Dec 5, 2024 Stars League
Al Minaa vs Erbil
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Temirov S.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Al Minaa Compare

Top Goalscorer Abdulrahim M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ali M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erbil 95 / 100
Al Minaa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erbil Al Minaa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erbil Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Erbil stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Erbil found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

Al Minaa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Erbil VS Al Minaa
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Erbil

(Home)
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
25 Aug
Al Karkh
0 : 1
Erbil
21 Aug
Erbil
1 : 1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
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Al Minaa

(Away)
09 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Naft Missan
05 Sept
Al Minaa
0 : 3
Al Naft
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
26 Aug
Al Minaa
3 : 0
Al Gharraf
20 Aug
Al Minaa
2 : 1
Zakho
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)