Sport Picks

Turkey

1. Lig 2025/2026 Kâzım Karabekir Stadyumu

Sariyer

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Erzurumspor FK play Sariyer in the 1. Lig 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Erzurumspor FK averaged 2.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. Sariyer averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Erzurumspor FK won 2, Sariyer won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 31, 2026 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for Erzurumspor FK and 1.13 for Sariyer. This points to a Erzurumspor FK double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%

Erzurumspor FK

17%

Draws

31%

Sariyer

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Erzurumspor FK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

Erzurumspor FK picked up more points recently compared to Sariyer.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 79%

Over 2.5 Goals 55%

Over 3.5 Goals 33%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%

Erzurumspor FK Clean Sheet 21%

Sariyer Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 71%

Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Erzurumspor FK	Sariyer
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	21	14
Draws	4	6
Losses	5	10
Goals Scored	2.33	1.2
Goals Conceded	0.83	1.17
Expected Goals (xG)	2.50	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 1. Lig

Erzurumspor FK vs Sariyer

Possession: 49% - 48% Cards: 2 - 4

4:0

Aug 29, 2025 1. Lig

Sariyer vs Erzurumspor FK

Possession: 48% - 48% Cards: 2 - 0

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erzurumspor FK Compare

Top Goalscorer Tozlu E.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Akgun S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.92

Avg xA / game 1.25

Sariyer Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erzurumspor FK 51 / 100

Sariyer 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Erzurumspor FK Sariyer

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Erzurumspor FK or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +18%

2.27

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.2%

2.04

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Erzurumspor FK attacking → ← attacking Sariyer

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Erzurumspor FK scored in 97% of their last 30 games.

Sariyer let in goals in 50% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Erzurumspor FK went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Sariyer lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

67 Points in last 5 48

2.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Erzurumspor FK	38	23	12	3	82:27	81
2	Amedspor	38	21	11	6	81:42	74
3	Erokspor	38	21	11	6	81:35	74
4	Corum FK	38	21	8	9	63:39	71
5	Bodrumspor	38	18	10	10	71:39	64
6	Pendikspor	38	16	15	7	58:33	63
7	Keciorengucu	38	16	12	10	73:43	60
8	Bandirmaspor	38	16	12	10	47:34	60
9	Manisa FK	38	16	7	15	57:56	55
10	Sivasspor	38	14	11	13	47:43	53
11	Istanbulspor AS	38	13	13	12	57:55	52
12	Sariyer	38	15	7	16	44:44	52
13	Igdir FK	38	13	11	14	52:54	50
14	Vanspor FK	38	13	10	15	52:47	49
15	Boluspor	38	14	6	18	61:57	48
16	Umraniyespor	38	13	7	18	47:51	46
17	Serik Spor	38	11	6	21	44:75	39
18	Sakaryaspor	38	8	10	20	45:72	34
19	Hatayspor	38	2	8	28	33:102	14
20	Adanademirspor	38	1	3	34	22:169	-54