Sport Picks
Match Events
16'
16'
Khaoui A.
AI Match Summary
The Ligue 2 2024/2025 game between ES Jerba and Stade Gabesien finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Stade Gabesien.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
30%
29%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: ES Jerba
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Stade Gabesien carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans ES Jerba's way, sitting at 60%.
- Regular Ligue 2 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.8%
ES Jerba Clean Sheet 16%
Stade Gabesien Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | ES Jerba | Stade Gabesien |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 37 |
| Wins | 7 | 20 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 15 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 0.57 | 1.59 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.97 | 0.86 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.97 | 1.49 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 8, 2025 Ligue 2
ES Jerba vs Stade Gabesien
0:1
Oct 19, 2024 Ligue 2
Stade Gabesien vs ES Jerba
0:0
Jun 7, 2024 Ligue 2
Stade Gabesien vs ES Jerba
0:1
Dec 21, 2023 Ligue 2
ES Jerba vs Stade Gabesien
1:0
Feb 9, 2020 Ligue 2
Stade Gabesien vs ES Jerba
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
ES Jerba Compare
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48
Stade Gabesien Compare
Top Goalscorer Khaoui A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
ES Jerba 57 / 100
Stade Gabesien 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
ES Jerba Stade Gabesien
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick ES Jerba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Recent resilience: ES Jerba stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
ES Jerba scored in 43% of their last 30 games.
Stade Gabesien's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 37 matches.
Games between these two average 0.60 goals.
Scoring Trends
- VS Stade Gabesien
0 Goals Scored 1.88
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
ES Jerba
(Home) 23 May
Sfax Railways
3 : 2 ES Jerba
16 May
ES Jerba
1 : 1 Chebba
10 May
Sidi Bouzid
2 : 0 ES Jerba
05 May
ES Jerba
2 : 0 PS Sakiet Eddaier
26 Apr
JS Kairouan
0 : 2 ES Jerba
Page 1 of 6
16 May
ES Jerba
1 : 1 Chebba
05 May
ES Jerba
2 : 0 PS Sakiet Eddaier
20 Apr
ES Jerba
1 : 0 Kasserine
15 Mar
ES Jerba
1 : 0 Redeyef
08 Mar
ES Jerba
0 : 0 BS Bouhajla
Page 1 of 4
Stade Gabesien
(Away) 30 May
Hammam-Lif
3 : 0 Stade Gabesien
25 May
Stade Gabesien
2 : 0 US Tataouine
20 May
CS Sfaxien
2 : 1 Stade Gabesien
12 May
Djelma
0 : 0 Stade Gabesien
02 May
Stade Gabesien
0 : 0 PS Sakiet Eddaier
Page 1 of 8
30 May
Hammam-Lif
3 : 0 Stade Gabesien
20 May
CS Sfaxien
2 : 1 Stade Gabesien
12 May
Djelma
0 : 0 Stade Gabesien
28 Apr
Kasserine
1 : 1 Stade Gabesien
11 Apr
Moknine
0 : 2 Stade Gabesien
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Marsa | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 40:17 | 53 |
| 2 | Megrine | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 49:23 | 52 |
| 3 | Jendouba Sport | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 38:19 | 49 |
| 4 | Hamam-Sousse | 26 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 36:28 | 36 |
| 5 | Korba | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 22:28 | 36 |
| 6 | Hammam-Lif | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 25:26 | 34 |
| 7 | Msaken | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 18:17 | 33 |
| 8 | Ariana | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 33:33 | 33 |
| 9 | Kalaa | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 30:34 | 31 |
| 10 | EM Mahdia | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 26:37 | 31 |
| 11 | Moknine | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 27:30 | 30 |
| 12 | Menzel Bourguiba | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 18:27 | 30 |
| 13 | Oued Ellil | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 23:32 | 27 |
| 14 | Rades | 26 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 16:50 | 14 |
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 (Main)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JS Kairouan | 26 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 30:11 | 54 |
| 2 | Kasserine | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 36:17 | 53 |
| 3 | Kerkennah | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 36:21 | 44 |
| 4 | Sfax Railways | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 35:22 | 44 |
| 5 | PS Sakiet Eddaier | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 32:23 | 44 |
| 6 | BS Bouhajla | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 21:22 | 33 |
| 7 | Redeyef | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 23:25 | 33 |
| 8 | Djelma | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 26:26 | 32 |
| 9 | Sidi Bouzid | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27:28 | 32 |
| 10 | Chebba | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 24:29 | 32 |
| 11 | Stade Gabesien | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 13:23 | 30 |
| 12 | AS Agareb | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 23:35 | 30 |
| 13 | ES Jerba | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 15:24 | 26 |
| 14 | Espoir Rogba | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 19:54 | 13 |
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 (Main)
