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Estradense vs Arzua

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Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

54' Event
Gomez R.
81' Event
Calvo Nieto B.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 game between Estradense and Arzua finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Estradense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Estradense
20%
Draws
22%
Arzua
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Estradense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Estradense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Estradense a 58% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Estradense have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Estradense Clean Sheet 20%
Arzua Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estradense Arzua
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 15 4
Draws 9 5
Losses 11 21
Goals Scored 1.49 0.73
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2026 Club Friendly
Estradense vs Arzua
2:0
May 5, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Estradense vs Arzua
2:0
Jan 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arzua vs Estradense
1:3
Feb 26, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arzua vs Estradense
1:0
Oct 30, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Estradense vs Arzua
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Estradense Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomez R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Calvo Nieto B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Arzua Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estradense 85 / 100
Arzua 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estradense Arzua

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Estradense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estradense scored in 83% of their last 35 games.

Arzua let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Estradense has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Estradense VS Arzua
1.38 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Estradense

(Home)
20 Sept
Estradense
3 : 1
Montaneros
12 Sept
Atletico Arteixo
1 : 1
Estradense
06 Sept
Estradense
1 : 3
Sarriana
28 Aug
Compostela
2 : 2
Estradense
26 Aug
Estradense
2 : 0
Arzua
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Arzua

(Away)
26 Aug
Estradense
2 : 0
Arzua
11 May
Arzua
1 : 0
Silva SD
05 May
Estradense
2 : 0
Arzua
01 May
Arzua
1 : 2
Lugo B
27 Apr
Barbadas-Bentraces
2 : 0
Arzua
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bergantinos 34 21 10 3 49:19 73
2 Gran Pena 34 15 16 3 48:30 61
3 Arosa SC 34 15 13 6 39:23 58
4 UD Ourense 34 15 10 9 47:34 55
5 Sarriana 34 14 8 12 43:35 50
6 Atletico Arteixo 34 11 14 9 46:39 47
7 Somozas 34 12 9 13 43:39 45
8 Estradense 34 11 12 11 31:32 45
9 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 10 14 10 33:34 44
10 Viveiro 34 12 8 14 39:42 44
11 Alondras 34 10 14 10 37:36 44
12 Silva SD 34 11 10 13 35:35 43
13 Lugo B 34 11 10 13 32:34 43
14 Betanzos CF 34 10 13 11 35:31 43
15 Rapido de Bouzas 34 11 9 14 38:40 42
16 Paiosaco 34 10 11 13 30:42 41
17 Pontevedra B 34 7 5 22 27:65 26
18 Arzua 34 4 6 24 24:66 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 (Play Offs)