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Estrella vs San Miguel

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Rodrigues B.
34' Event
Rodriguez V.
90' Event
Santana J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 game between Estrella and San Miguel finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Estrella.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Estrella
30%
Draws
43%
San Miguel
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: San Miguel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • San Miguel carry the better recent record into this one.
  • San Miguel are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Estrella Clean Sheet 17%
San Miguel Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estrella San Miguel
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 10
Draws 9 8
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 0.97 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.46 1.40
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Estrella vs San Miguel
2:1
Oct 12, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
San Miguel vs Estrella
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Estrella Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Santana J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.12
Avg xA / game 0.73

San Miguel Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigues B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.27
Avg xA / game 0.78

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estrella 28 / 100
San Miguel 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estrella San Miguel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Miguel Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

San Miguel let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Estrella went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Estrella found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Estrella VS San Miguel
1.67 Goals Scored 1.13
1.67 Goals Conceded 1.25
67% Over 1.5 75%
67% Over 2.5 63%
67% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Estrella

(Home)
19 Sept
San Bartolome
4 : 2
Estrella
12 Sept
Estrella
3 : 1
Villaverde Norte
11 May
Estrella
2 : 1
Herbania
04 May
San Bartolome
1 : 0
Estrella
26 Apr
Estrella
1 : 1
CD Santa Ursula
Page 1 of 6

San Miguel

(Away)
19 Sept
San Miguel
3 : 1
Villa Santa Brigida
13 Sept
Lanzarote
1 : 1
San Miguel
10 May
Las Palmas C
0 : 1
San Miguel
03 May
San Miguel
1 : 1
Panaderia
26 Apr
Telde
1 : 3
San Miguel
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Las Palmas B 34 22 10 2 66:17 76
2 UD San Fernando 34 21 10 3 58:20 73
3 Tamaraceite 34 18 9 7 48:29 63
4 Ibarra 34 18 5 11 49:40 59
5 Mensajero 34 16 8 10 50:37 56
6 Lanzarote 34 16 7 11 56:33 55
7 Panaderia 34 13 11 10 45:39 50
8 CD Marino 34 12 11 11 43:45 47
9 Arucas 34 12 9 13 38:36 45
10 San Bartolome 34 10 15 9 43:35 45
11 Villa Santa Brigida 34 10 11 13 34:42 41
12 Herbania 34 10 10 14 33:41 40
13 CD Santa Ursula 34 10 10 14 29:42 40
14 San Miguel 34 10 7 17 36:54 37
15 CD Buzanada 34 9 5 20 27:54 32
16 Estrella 34 7 9 18 30:57 30
17 Los Llanos 34 7 7 20 25:52 28
18 Union Viera 34 3 10 21 28:65 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 (Play Offs)