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Stadium Background

Estudiantes Merida vs Carabobo

Venezuela Venezuela

Liga FUTVE Estadio Metropolitano de Mérida
Our Tip

Match Events

38'
Bahachille A.
43'
Roberts E.
46'
Acosta H.

AI Match Summary

Carabobo in this Liga FUTVE matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Carabobo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Estudiantes Merida
6%
Draws
90%
Carabobo
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Carabobo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Carabobo have won more games recently than Estudiantes Merida.
  • Model gives Carabobo a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga FUTVE form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Carabobo have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Estudiantes Merida Clean Sheet 16%
Carabobo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estudiantes Merida Carabobo
Matches Played 30 38
Wins 11 17
Draws 3 13
Losses 16 8
Goals Scored 0.63 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Liga FUTVE
Estudiantes Merida vs Carabobo
0:2
May 13, 2026 Liga FUTVE
Carabobo vs Estudiantes Merida
1:0
Mar 18, 2026 Liga FUTVE
Estudiantes Merida vs Carabobo
3:2
Jul 5, 2025 Liga FUTVE
Carabobo vs Estudiantes Merida
2:1
Jan 25, 2025 Liga FUTVE
Estudiantes Merida vs Carabobo
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Estudiantes Merida Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Carabobo Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estudiantes Merida 10 / 100
Carabobo 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estudiantes Merida Carabobo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estudiantes Merida scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Carabobo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 38 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Carabobo registered 1 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Estudiantes Merida VS Carabobo
0.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Academia Puerto Cabello63128:710
2Portuguesa62227:88
3Deportivo La Guaira61415:57
4Universidad Central61328:86
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Carabobo632110:511
2Dep. Tachira63218:511
3Metropolitanos62225:78
4Estudiantes Merida61052:83