Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Excelsior vs Utrecht

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam
Sun, Sep 13, 2026
VS
10:15 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Excelsior host Utrecht in the Eredivisie. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Recent numbers: Excelsior at 1.93 goals for, 1.5 against; Utrecht at 1.48 for, 1.62 against. Past meetings favor Utrecht slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 26, 2026, ending 5:0. xG projections (2.44 - 1.19) back Excelsior to edge this. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

78%
Excelsior
15%
Draws
7%
Utrecht
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Excelsior

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • Excelsior average 1.93 goals a game right now, well clear of Utrecht's 1.48.
  • Excelsior are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Excelsior Clean Sheet 20%
Utrecht Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Excelsior Utrecht
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 12
Draws 7 4
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.93 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Utrecht
5:0
Aug 24, 2025 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs Excelsior
4:1
Jan 27, 2024 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Utrecht
1:1
Nov 12, 2023 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs Excelsior
2:2
Jan 25, 2023 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs Excelsior
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Excelsior 85 / 100
Utrecht 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Excelsior Utrecht

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Excelsior Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Excelsior scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Utrecht has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Excelsior has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Excelsior VS Utrecht
3.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 50%
88% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Excelsior

(Home)
29 Aug
Excelsior
2 : 1
Sparta Rotterdam
15 Aug
Excelsior
1 : 2
PSV
07 Aug
Cambuur
0 : 4
Excelsior
01 Aug
De Graafschap
1 : 5
Excelsior
24 Jul
Heracles
3 : 5
Excelsior
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Utrecht

(Away)
30 Aug
Utrecht
1 : 6
PSV
22 Aug
Sparta Rotterdam
3 : 3
Utrecht
15 Aug
Utrecht
1 : 4
AZ Alkmaar
09 Aug
Groningen
2 : 1
Utrecht
02 Aug
Utrecht
0 : 1
Sevilla
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AZ Alkmaar 4 4 0 0 13:3 12
2 PSV 4 3 1 0 15:5 10
3 Feyenoord 4 2 2 0 10:6 8
4 Ajax 3 2 1 0 8:2 7
5 G.A. Eagles 4 2 1 1 11:9 7
6 Sittard 4 2 1 1 8:7 7
7 Nijmegen 3 2 0 1 8:4 6
8 Twente 3 2 0 1 7:3 6
9 Excelsior 3 2 0 1 7:3 6
10 Groningen 4 2 0 2 9:10 6
11 Heerenveen 4 1 2 1 5:6 5
12 Sparta Rotterdam 4 1 1 2 7:7 4
13 Telstar 3 1 0 2 3:8 3
14 Zwolle 4 1 0 3 4:8 3
15 Willem II 3 0 1 2 4:10 1
16 Den Haag 4 0 1 3 4:11 1
17 Utrecht 4 0 1 3 6:15 1
18 Cambuur 4 0 0 4 4:16 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)