Sport Picks

Asia

AFC Challenge League 2025/2026 Morodok Techo National Stadium, Phnom Penh

Falcons

3 - 1

Ezra

Our Tip

Match Events

11'

Ayvazov R.

Assist: Ferreira A.

19'

Wenpaserth C.

Assist: Narita K.

24'

Dulguun S.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Falcons in this AFC Challenge League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Falcons.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%

Falcons

15%

Draws

34%

Ezra

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Falcons

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence

Attack-wise there's a gap: Falcons at 3.5 per game, Ezra at 2.67.
Win probability leans Falcons's way, sitting at 36%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%

Falcons Clean Sheet 16%

Ezra Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Falcons	Ezra
Matches Played	26	30
Wins	19	19
Draws	5	2
Losses	2	9
Goals Scored	3.5	2.67
Goals Conceded	0.85	1.27
Expected Goals (xG)	1.11	1.49
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 1, 2025 AFC Challenge League

Falcons vs Ezra

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Falcons Compare

Top Goalscorer Ayvazov R.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Baatartsogt N.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.85

Avg xA / game 0.56

Ezra Compare

Top Goalscorer Wenpaserth C.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Falcons 36 / 100

Ezra 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Falcons Ezra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Falcons's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Ezra let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Falcons has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Falcons VS Ezra

0.6 Goals Scored 2.38

0.6 Goals Conceded 1.63

40% Over 1.5 88%

20% Over 2.5 75%

20% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Falcons

(Home)

01 Nov

Falcons

3 : 1

Ezra

29 Oct

Falcons

0 : 2

Manila Digger

26 Oct

Svay Rieng

3 : 0

Falcons

12 Oct

Khovd

0 : 2

Falcons

07 Oct

Khoromkhon

0 : 7

Falcons

Page 1 of 6

Ezra

(Away)

14 Sept

Shan United

2 : 0

Ezra

11 Sept

Ezra

3 : 2

Shan United

08 Sept

Yangon United

2 : 1

Ezra

14 Mar

Ezra

1 : 6

Young Elephant

08 Mar

Luang Prabang United FC

1 : 4

Ezra

Page 1 of 6