Sport Picks
FC Chernihiv vs Fenix Mariupol
Ukraine
Ukrainian Cup 2025/2026 Chernihiv Stadium, Černihiv 
Match Events
52'
52'
Synytsya O.
63'
63'
Sub
Koydan V. In: Shalfeev Y.
Out: Koydan V.
63'
63'
Sub
Bezborodko D. In: Novikov A.
Out: Bezborodko D.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-0, with FC Chernihiv advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
20%
47%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Fenix Mariupol
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Fenix Mariupol come out ahead of FC Chernihiv on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- Fenix Mariupol arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Fenix Mariupol, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
FC Chernihiv Clean Sheet 15%
Fenix Mariupol Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | FC Chernihiv | Fenix Mariupol |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 9 | 11 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 12 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.24 | 1.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.24 | 1.04 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 21, 2026 Persha Liga
FC Chernihiv vs Fenix Mariupol
1:4
Mar 18, 2026 Ukrainian Cup
FC Chernihiv vs Fenix Mariupol
1:0
Aug 31, 2025 Persha Liga
Fenix Mariupol vs FC Chernihiv
1:0
Jul 14, 2024 Club Friendly
Fenix Mariupol vs FC Chernihiv
2:5
Mar 5, 2024 Club Friendly
Fenix Mariupol vs FC Chernihiv
2:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
FC Chernihiv 35 / 100
Fenix Mariupol 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
FC Chernihiv Fenix Mariupol
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Fenix Mariupol Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
FC Chernihiv found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
Fenix Mariupol let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.
Recent resilience: FC Chernihiv stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
FC Chernihiv VS Fenix Mariupol
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
FC Chernihiv
(Home) 11 Sept
UCSA
3 : 2 FC Chernihiv
05 Sept
FC Chernihiv
1 : 0 Nyva Ternopil
29 Aug
Oleksandriya
1 : 0 FC Chernihiv
23 Aug
LSTM Lutsk
1 : 2 FC Chernihiv
15 Aug
FC Chernihiv
2 : 2 Zhytomyr 2
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
FC Chernihiv
1 : 0 Nyva Ternopil
15 Aug
FC Chernihiv
2 : 2 Zhytomyr 2
01 Aug
FC Chernihiv
1 : 1 Kulikiv
26 May
FC Chernihiv
1 : 2 Metalist Kharkiv
23 May
FC Chernihiv
1 : 2 Inhulets
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Fenix Mariupol
(Away) 20 Sept
Fenix Mariupol
2 : 1 Zhytomyr 2
13 Sept
Probiy Horodenka
0 : 2 Fenix Mariupol
09 Sept
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 2 Zorya
05 Sept
Fenix Mariupol
1 : 1 Kulikiv
28 Aug
Lokomotyv Kyiv
1 : 3 Fenix Mariupol
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Probiy Horodenka
0 : 2 Fenix Mariupol
28 Aug
Lokomotyv Kyiv
1 : 3 Fenix Mariupol
20 Aug
Dinaz Vyshgorod
0 : 6 Fenix Mariupol
31 Jul
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
2 : 0 Fenix Mariupol
02 Jul
Karpaty Lviv
1 : 1 Fenix Mariupol
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Denhoff Denykhivka 3
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998) 2
Dinaz Vyshgorod 0
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 3
Kolos Polonne 1
Naftovyk Dolyna 0
FC Kharkiv 2
Obolon 0
Lokomotyv Kyiv 3
Kolos Kovalivka 2
Korosten 0
Veres Rivne 4
Nyva Vinnytsya 3
UCSA 0
Hirnyk-Sport 1
Trostyanets 0
FC Chernihiv 1
Atlet Kiev 0
Kulikiv 0
Kryvbas 3
FC Vilkhivtsi 1
Olympia Savyntsi 2
Chaika Petropavlivska Borshchahivka 0
Lisne 4
Epitsentr 1
Ahrotekh Tyshkivka 2
Ch. Odesa 2
Zorya 1
Fazenda 0
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya 1
FC Uzhhorod 1
Fenix Mariupol 2
Metalist Kharkiv 2
Mayak Sarny 0
LNZ Cherkasy 1
Probiy Horodenka 0
Kormil Yavoriv 1
Rukh Lviv 2
TBD -
Polissya Zhytomyr -
Lozova 0
Bukovyna 3
Penuel Kryvyi Rih 0
Karpaty Lviv 8
Real Pharma Odesa 0
Nyva Ternopil 3
Iron 1
SC Poltava 5
Oleksandriya -
TBD -
TBD -
Dynamo Kyiv -
Polissya Stavky 3
Rebel Kyiv 0
TBD -
Shakhtar -
Livyi Bereg 1
Kudrivka 0
Victoria 1
Vorskla Poltava 0
Karbon Cherkasy 1
Inhulets 2
FC Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1
Skala 1911 0
1/16-finals
Denhoff Denykhivka 0
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2
Kolos Polonne 1
FC Kharkiv 4
Lokomotyv Kyiv 1
Veres Rivne 0
Nyva Vinnytsya 7
Hirnyk-Sport 0
FC Chernihiv 3
Kryvbas 0
Olympia Savyntsi 1
Lisne 2
Ahrotekh Tyshkivka 2
Ch. Odesa 1
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya 1
Fenix Mariupol 2
Metalist Kharkiv 0
LNZ Cherkasy 2
Rukh Lviv 3
Polissya Zhytomyr 0
Bukovyna 1
Karpaty Lviv 0
Nyva Ternopil 3
SC Poltava 0
Oleksandriya 1
Dynamo Kyiv 2
Polissya Stavky 0
Shakhtar 1
Livyi Bereg 0
Victoria 1
Inhulets 4
FC Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1
1/8-finals
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 3
FC Kharkiv 4
Lokomotyv Kyiv 1
Nyva Vinnytsya 0
FC Chernihiv 2
Lisne 1
Ahrotekh Tyshkivka 1
Fenix Mariupol 2
LNZ Cherkasy 1
Rukh Lviv 0
Bukovyna 2
Nyva Ternopil 1
Dynamo Kyiv 2
Shakhtar 1
Victoria 0
Inhulets 1
Quarter-finals
FC Kharkiv 3
Lokomotyv Kyiv 0
FC Chernihiv 1
Fenix Mariupol 0
LNZ Cherkasy 0
Bukovyna 1
Dynamo Kyiv 2
Inhulets 0
Semi-finals
FC Kharkiv 0
FC Chernihiv 1
Bukovyna 0
Dynamo Kyiv 3
Final
FC Chernihiv 1
Dynamo Kyiv 3
