Sport Picks
Fencibles United AFC vs Western Springs
New Zealand
Chatham Cup 2025 
Match Events
37'
37'
Nicol K.
90'
90'
Drake R.
90'
90'
Laing-McConnell D.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-1, with Fencibles United AFC advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
30%
39%
31%
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Western Springs come out ahead of Fencibles United AFC on wins alone.
- 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Western Springs arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Fencibles United AFC, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Fencibles United AFC Clean Sheet 10%
Western Springs Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Fencibles United AFC | Western Springs |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 5 | 25 |
| Wins | 3 | 12 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 2 | 2.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 2.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.25 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 4, 2025 Chatham Cup
Fencibles United AFC vs Western Springs
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Fencibles United AFC Compare
Top Goalscorer Nicol K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Laing-McConnell D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1
Western Springs Compare
Top Goalscorer Drake R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Fencibles United AFC 29 / 100
Western Springs 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Fencibles United AFC Western Springs
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick FEN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Western Springs has conceded goals in 80% of their last 25 outings.
Fencibles United AFC's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 5 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Solid form: Fencibles United AFC remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Fencibles United AFC VS Western Springs
2 Goals Scored 2.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Fencibles United AFC
(Home) 25 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 2 Auckland City
04 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 0 South Auckland Rangers
26 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
0 : 2 Eastern Suburbs
04 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
2 : 1 Western Springs
08 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
0 : 2 Melville
25 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 2 Auckland City
04 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 0 South Auckland Rangers
26 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
0 : 2 Eastern Suburbs
04 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
2 : 1 Western Springs
08 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
0 : 2 Melville
Western Springs
(Away) 07 Dec
Birkenhead
3 : 1 Western Springs
30 Nov
Western Springs
1 : 3 Auckland City
23 Nov
Coastal Spirit
1 : 0 Western Springs
09 Nov
Western Springs
3 : 0 Wellington Phoenix 2
01 Nov
Miramar
1 : 2 Western Springs
Page 1 of 5
07 Dec
Birkenhead
3 : 1 Western Springs
23 Nov
Coastal Spirit
1 : 0 Western Springs
01 Nov
Miramar
1 : 2 Western Springs
18 Oct
Christchurch
1 : 2 Western Springs
03 Oct
Wellington Olympic
2 : 1 Western Springs
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC2
Western Springs1
Manukau United1
Eastern Suburbs3
Western Suburbs4
Palmerston North United FC1
Napier City2
Wellington Olympic3
Wanaka FC0
Christchurch3
Auckland United7
Melville1
Dunedin City Royals0
Nelson Suburbs FC1
Birkenhead7
Waiheke United0
Quarter-finals
Fencibles United AFC0
Eastern Suburbs2
Western Suburbs2
Wellington Olympic3
Christchurch2
Auckland United4
Nelson Suburbs FC2
Birkenhead1
Semi-finals
Eastern Suburbs1
Wellington Olympic2
Auckland United3
Nelson Suburbs FC0
Final
Wellington Olympic4
Auckland United2
