Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Fenerbahce vs Sturm Graz

Europe Europe

Champions League Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Istanbul
Fenerbahce Logo

Fenerbahce

2 - 0
FT
Sturm Graz Logo

Sturm Graz

Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Talisca A.
Assist: Akturkoglu K.
21'
Gorenc Stankovic J.
30'
Sub
Oosterwolde J. In: Brown A.
Out: Oosterwolde J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Fenerbahce
30%
Draws
33%
Sturm Graz
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fenerbahce

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Fenerbahce have won more games recently than Sturm Graz.
  • Fenerbahce are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Fenerbahce have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Fenerbahce, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Fenerbahce here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Fenerbahce Clean Sheet 20%
Sturm Graz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fenerbahce Sturm Graz
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 18 15
Draws 7 11
Losses 5 5
Goals Scored 2.23 1.81
Goals Conceded 0.97 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 11, 2026 Champions League
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce
0:1
Aug 5, 2026 Champions League
Fenerbahce vs Sturm Graz
2:0
Aug 3, 2017 Europa League
Fenerbahce vs Sturm Graz
1:1
Jul 27, 2017 Europa League
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fenerbahce Compare

Top Goalscorer Talisca A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Greenwood M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Sturm Graz Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fenerbahce 85 / 100
Sturm Graz 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fenerbahce Sturm Graz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fenerbahce Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fenerbahce found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

Sturm Graz has conceded goals in 61% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Fenerbahce went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fenerbahce VS Sturm Graz
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Fenerbahce

(Home)
20 Sept
Fenerbahce
8 : 0
Eyupspor
14 Sept
Gaziantep
0 : 0
Fenerbahce
10 Sept
Fenerbahce
1 : 1
AS Roma
05 Sept
Fenerbahce
1 : 2
Besiktas
30 Aug
Samsunspor
0 : 2
Fenerbahce
Page 1 of 6

Sturm Graz

(Away)
20 Sept
Salzburg
3 : 0
Sturm Graz
16 Sept
Sturm Graz
0 : 0
Rennes
13 Sept
Sturm Graz
2 : 1
LASK Linz
05 Sept
ASK Voitsberg
1 : 4
Sturm Graz
30 Aug
Rapid Vienna
3 : 1
Sturm Graz
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Borac Banja Luka 1
Levski Sofia 5
ML Vitebsk 1
Univ. Craiova 5
Omonia -
TBD -
Kairat Almaty 4
Sutjeska 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
AEK -
Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
LASK Linz -
Thun -
TBD -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb -
Klaksvik 4
Bissen 2
FK Kauno Zalgiris 4
Drita 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Viking -
Mjallby -
TBD -
Lincoln Red Imps 4
Inter Escaldes 2
Flora 4
Iberia 1999 5
TBD -
Slovan Bratislava -
Ararat-Armenia 4
Riga FC 3
Floriana 3
Shamrock Rovers 5
Petrocub Hincesti 2
KF Egnatia 7
TBD -
Celje -
Vikingur Reykjavik 3
Gyor 2
TBD -
H. Beer Sheva -
Tre Fiori 1
Larne 3
TBD -
Crvena zvezda -
Aarhus -
TBD -
TBD -
Lech Poznan -
Sabah Baku 4
TNS 1
Vardar 3
KuPS 4
Fenerbahce -
TBD -
TBD -
Gornik Zabrze -
Sturm Graz -
TBD -
TBD -
Hearts -
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Lyon -
Olympiacos Piraeus -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nijmegen -
Royale Union SG -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt -
Quarter-finals
Levski Sofia 3
Univ. Craiova 2
Omonia 1
Kairat Almaty 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
AEK -
Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
LASK Linz -
Thun 3
Din. Zagreb 4
Klaksvik 0
FK Kauno Zalgiris 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Viking -
Mjallby 3
Lincoln Red Imps 0
Iberia 1999 1
Slovan Bratislava 3
Ararat-Armenia 3
Shamrock Rovers 2
KF Egnatia 5
Celje 6
Vikingur Reykjavik 2
H. Beer Sheva 3
Larne 0
Crvena zvezda 9
Aarhus 6
Lech Poznan 5
Sabah Baku 3
KuPS 0
Fenerbahce 2
Gornik Zabrze 1
Sturm Graz 6
Hearts 0
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
TBD -
Lyon -
Olympiacos Piraeus -
TBD -
TBD -
Nijmegen -
Royale Union SG -
TBD -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt -
Semi-finals
Levski Sofia 2
Kairat Almaty 0
TBD -
AEK -
Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
LASK Linz -
Din. Zagreb 7
FK Kauno Zalgiris 1
TBD -
Viking -
Mjallby 1
Slovan Bratislava 4
Ararat-Armenia 2
Celje 3
H. Beer Sheva 3
Crvena zvezda 0
Aarhus 2
Sabah Baku 5
Fenerbahce 3
Sturm Graz 0
Sparta Prague 2
Lyon 4
Olympiacos Piraeus 1
Nijmegen 2
Royale Union SG 5
Bodo/Glimt 6
Final
Levski Sofia 0
AEK 4
Celtic 4
LASK Linz 5
Din. Zagreb 3
Viking 5
Slovan Bratislava 3
Celje 2
H. Beer Sheva 4
Sabah Baku 6
Fenerbahce 3
Lyon 2
Nijmegen 1
Bodo/Glimt 6