Sport Picks

Brazil

Serie D Estadio Presidente Vargas, Fortaleza

Ferroviario

2 - 1

Piaui

Our Tip

Match Events

30'

Ciel

44'

Kauan Maranhao

(Penalty)

79'

Black L.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ferroviario in this Serie D matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ferroviario.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Ferroviario

20%

Draws

38%

Piaui

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ferroviario

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence

Piaui have won more games recently than Ferroviario.
Ferroviario are the model's pick here, at 42%.
Regular Serie D form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 33%

Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%

Ferroviario Clean Sheet 20%

Piaui Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Ferroviario	Piaui
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	13	15
Draws	9	5
Losses	8	10
Goals Scored	1.38	0.88
Goals Conceded	1	1
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2026 Serie D

Piaui vs Ferroviario

1:1

May 3, 2026 Serie D

Ferroviario vs Piaui

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ferroviario Compare

Top Goalscorer Ciel

1 Goals

Assists Leader Black L.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Piaui Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferroviario 42 / 100

Piaui 37 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Ferroviario Piaui

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ferroviario's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Piaui has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Ferroviario went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ferroviario VS Piaui

1.38 Goals Scored 0.88

1 Goals Conceded 1

75% Over 1.5 63%

38% Over 2.5 25%

25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ferroviario

(Home)

26 Jul

Ferroviario

1 : 2

Goiatuba EC

18 Jul

Goiatuba EC

3 : 0

Ferroviario

12 Jul

Ferroviario

3 : 0

Imperatriz

04 Jul

Imperatriz

1 : 1

Ferroviario

28 Jun

Ferroviario

2 : 0

Central SC

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Piaui

(Away)

27 Jun

Piaui

1 : 0

Maguary

21 Jun

Maguary

2 : 0

Piaui

13 Jun

Piaui

2 : 1

Tirol

01 Jun

Atletico Cearense

0 : 1

Piaui

23 May

Piaui

0 : 1

Fluminense-PI

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