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Fluminense-SC vs Hercilio Luz

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Gustavinho
78'
Rafinhha

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense 2 game between Fluminense-SC and Hercilio Luz finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fluminense-SC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Fluminense-SC
22%
Draws
60%
Hercilio Luz
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Hercilio Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Hercilio Luz's 2.25 goals per match outpaces what Fluminense-SC have produced (0.88).
  • Win probability leans Hercilio Luz's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Hercilio Luz have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Fluminense-SC Clean Sheet 20%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fluminense-SC Hercilio Luz
Matches Played 33 27
Wins 12 12
Draws 9 6
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 0.88 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs Fluminense-SC
4:2
May 6, 2026 Catarinense 2
Fluminense-SC vs Hercilio Luz
1:0
Oct 20, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Fluminense-SC vs Hercilio Luz
0:2
Sep 26, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Hercilio Luz vs Fluminense-SC
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fluminense-SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Hercilio Luz Compare

Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fluminense-SC 20 / 100
Hercilio Luz 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fluminense-SC Hercilio Luz

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HER Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Fluminense-SC scored in 70% of their last 33 outings.

Hercilio Luz has conceded goals in 67% of their last 27 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Fluminense-SC remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Fluminense-SC VS Hercilio Luz
0.88 Goals Scored 2.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz15112231:935
2Caravaggio1593342:1730
3CA Metropolitano1592425:1729
4Blumenau1583431:1227
5Tubarao1565422:1523
6Fluminense-SC1553714:1818
7Nacao1545614:2217
8Guarani de Palhoca1544714:2316
9Gremio Juventus1542913:2114
10Jaragua-SC1501145:571