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Fluminense-SC vs Hercilio Luz

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Gustavinho
78'
Rafinhha

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense 2 game between Fluminense-SC and Hercilio Luz finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fluminense-SC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Fluminense-SC
20%
Draws
52%
Hercilio Luz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Hercilio Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Hercilio Luz carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Hercilio Luz's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Hercilio Luz have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Fluminense-SC Clean Sheet 20%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fluminense-SC Hercilio Luz
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 11 15
Draws 8 5
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.03 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.19 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs Fluminense-SC
4:2
May 6, 2026 Catarinense 2
Fluminense-SC vs Hercilio Luz
1:0
Oct 20, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Fluminense-SC vs Hercilio Luz
0:2
Sep 26, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Hercilio Luz vs Fluminense-SC
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fluminense-SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Hercilio Luz Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fluminense-SC 10 / 100
Hercilio Luz 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fluminense-SC Hercilio Luz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hercilio Luz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Fluminense-SC scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Hercilio Luz has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Fluminense-SC remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Fluminense-SC VS Hercilio Luz
1 Goals Scored 2
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Fluminense-SC

(Home)
25 Jul
CA Metropolitano
3 : 0
Fluminense-SC
22 Jul
Fluminense-SC
2 : 1
Tubarao
19 Jul
Gremio Juventus
3 : 0
Fluminense-SC
15 Jul
Fluminense-SC
1 : 1
Guarani de Palhoca
12 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Fluminense-SC
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Hercilio Luz

(Away)
30 Aug
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2
CA Metropolitano
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Hercilio Luz
22 Jul
Hercilio Luz
0 : 0
Caravaggio
19 Jul
Tubarao
0 : 2
Hercilio Luz
15 Jul
Hercilio Luz
1 : 0
Gremio Juventus
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hercilio Luz 18 13 3 2 35:10 42
2 CA Metropolitano 18 12 2 4 36:18 38
3 Caravaggio 18 10 5 3 47:20 35
4 Blumenau 18 9 4 5 35:15 31
5 Tubarao 18 6 5 7 23:21 23
6 Guarani de Palhoca 18 6 5 7 24:24 23
7 Nacao 18 5 6 7 19:26 21
8 Fluminense-SC 18 6 3 9 16:25 21
9 Gremio Juventus 18 5 2 11 17:26 17
10 Jaragua-SC 18 0 1 17 6:73 1
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)