Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Folgore vs Virtus

San Marino San Marino

Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Scappini S.
Assist: Sabato R.
45' Event
De Lucia U.
Own Goal
64' Event
Zenoni M.
Assist: Sabato R.

AI Match Summary

Virtus in this Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Virtus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Folgore
15%
Draws
39%
Virtus
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Folgore

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Virtus lately — more wins on the board than Folgore.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Virtus here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Folgore Clean Sheet 68%
Virtus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Folgore Virtus
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 19
Draws 9 6
Losses 4 5
Goals Scored 2.2 2.1
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.97
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
Folgore vs Virtus
1:2
Sep 12, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
Virtus vs Folgore
2:1
Mar 1, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
Folgore vs Virtus
0:2
Nov 1, 2024 Campionato Sammarinese
Virtus vs Folgore
1:0
Mar 10, 2024 Campionato Sammarinese
Virtus vs Folgore
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Folgore Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Virtus Compare

Top Goalscorer Scappini S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zenoni M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.54

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Folgore 41 / 100
Virtus 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Folgore Virtus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Folgore Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Folgore found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (30 games).

Folgore has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Virtus conceded in 53% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Folgore VS Virtus
2 Goals Scored 1.38
0.57 Goals Conceded 1.25
71% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 63%
29% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Folgore

(Home)
19 Sept
Folgore
2 : 0
San Marino Academy U22
13 Sept
Juvenes/Dogana
1 : 2
Folgore
09 Sept
AC Libertas
0 : 2
Folgore
05 Sept
Folgore
1 : 0
Cailungo
28 Aug
Folgore
5 : 0
SS Murata
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Virtus

(Away)
18 Sept
Tre Fiori
2 : 3
Virtus
12 Sept
Virtus
2 : 0
AC Libertas
09 Sept
SS Murata
0 : 3
Virtus
04 Sept
Fiorentino
0 : 1
Virtus
30 Aug
Virtus
0 : 0
La Fiorita
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tre Fiori 30 22 7 1 63:13 73
2 Virtus 30 22 6 2 76:20 72
3 Tre Penne 30 21 7 2 71:18 70
4 La Fiorita 30 17 11 2 64:25 57
5 Folgore 30 16 9 5 67:33 57
6 SP Domagnano 30 14 7 9 59:36 49
7 Fiorentino 30 14 4 12 37:42 46
8 SP Cosmos 30 11 9 10 30:23 42
9 Juvenes/Dogana 30 9 10 11 36:38 37
10 AC Libertas 30 9 8 13 32:63 35
11 SS Pennarossa 30 8 8 14 29:53 32
12 San Giovanni 30 7 10 13 24:43 31
13 SC Faetano 30 6 4 20 22:55 22
14 San Marino Academy U22 30 3 7 20 23:60 16
15 Cailungo 30 2 5 23 23:71 11
16 SS Murata 30 1 4 25 20:83 -2
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)