Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Fortaleza vs Avai

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Castelão, Fortaleza
Our Tip

Match Events

42'
Gabriel Cipriano
46'
Sub
Ronald In: Ryan
Out: Ronald
46'
Sub
Lucas Crispim In: Luiz Fernando
Out: Lucas Crispim

AI Match Summary

Fortaleza in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Fortaleza.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Fortaleza
30%
Draws
6%
Avai
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fortaleza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Fortaleza haven't matched Avai's recent run of results.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on Fortaleza taking it.
  • Regular Serie B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 68%
Avai Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fortaleza Avai
Matches Played 29 35
Wins 12 13
Draws 8 6
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.07 1.31
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 Serie B
Fortaleza vs Avai
1:0
May 10, 2026 Serie B
Avai vs Fortaleza
0:0
Oct 9, 2022 Serie A Betano
Fortaleza vs Avai
2:0
Jun 16, 2022 Serie A Betano
Avai vs Fortaleza
3:2
Oct 30, 2019 Serie A Betano
Avai vs Fortaleza
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fortaleza Compare

Top Goalscorer Mailton
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Avai Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fortaleza 86 / 100
Avai 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fortaleza Avai

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fortaleza Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Fortaleza remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Fortaleza scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Avai conceded in 74% of 35 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Fortaleza VS Avai
1.25 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Fortaleza

(Home)
20 Sept
Londrina
1 : 2
Fortaleza
13 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Ceara
09 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 0
Avai
05 Sept
Goias
0 : 1
Fortaleza
31 Aug
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Operario-PR
Page 1 of 6

Avai

(Away)
20 Sept
Goias
2 : 1
Avai
15 Sept
Avai
1 : 1
Vila Nova FC
09 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 0
Avai
05 Sept
Novorizontino
3 : 1
Avai
30 Aug
Avai
0 : 1
Atletico GO
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vila Nova FC 29 15 6 8 41:31 51
2 Fortaleza 29 14 9 6 33:24 51
3 Novorizontino 29 14 8 7 49:27 50
4 EC Juventude 29 14 8 7 31:19 50
5 Operario-PR 29 13 8 8 41:36 47
6 Criciuma 29 13 8 8 28:27 47
7 Atletico GO 29 12 10 7 36:27 46
8 CRB 29 13 6 10 42:41 45
9 Sport Recife 29 11 11 7 39:29 44
10 Cuiaba 29 10 13 6 30:22 43
11 Goias 29 12 6 11 30:35 42
12 Sao Bernardo 29 11 8 10 40:31 41
13 Athletic Club 29 10 11 8 34:31 41
14 Nautico 29 10 8 11 35:36 38
15 Ceara 29 9 8 12 31:37 35
16 Botafogo SP 29 8 8 13 32:36 32
17 Avai 29 8 6 15 30:38 30
18 Londrina 29 7 7 15 39:41 28
19 America MG 29 4 5 20 21:49 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 3 4 22 17:62 13
Promotion - Serie A Betano 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C 2027 (First stage)