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Forward vs Smedby

Sweden Sweden

Division 2 - Södra Svealand
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Forward play Smedby in the Division 2 - Södra Svealand. It looks like a close match. Recently, Forward averaged 1.74 goals scored and 1.81 conceded. Smedby averaged 2.15 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Forward won 0, Smedby won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 12, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.13 for Forward and 1.44 for Smedby. This points to a Smedby double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Forward
34%
Draws
34%
Smedby
Draw rate projection: 34% Favored: Smedby

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Forward picked up more points recently compared to Smedby.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.13 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Forward Clean Sheet 16%
Smedby Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 79%
Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Forward Smedby
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 13 15
Draws 5 7
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.74 2.15
Goals Conceded 1.81 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Division 2 - Södra Svealand
Forward vs Smedby
0:2
Jun 25, 2025 Division 2 - Södra Svealand
Forward vs Smedby
3:3
Apr 5, 2025 Division 2 - Södra Svealand
Smedby vs Forward
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Forward Compare

Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Smedby Compare

Top Goalscorer Rann D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Frisk C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Forward 32 / 100
Smedby 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Forward Smedby

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Smedby or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.1%
1.72
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Forward attacking → ← attacking Smedby

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Forward scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Smedby let in goals in 70% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 4.67 goals.

Forward went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Smedby lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 52
2.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nykopings1492327:1229
2Forward1492329:1829
3Haninge1491436:2628
4Farsta1481530:1725
5Sleipner1474326:2625
6Smedby1472529:2123
7Ragsved1464430:2322
8Fittja IF1462627:2720
9Orebro Syrianska1451816:1616
10Lindo FF1451821:2316
11Eker Orebro1442817:3614
12Karlslund1434715:2313
13Syrianska1433820:3512
14Nacka FC14211113:337