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Free State Stars vs Richards Bay

South Africa South Africa

GladAfrica Championship 2021/2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Free State Stars play Richards Bay in the GladAfrica Championship 2021/2022. It looks like a close match. Recently, Free State Stars averaged 0.97 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. Richards Bay averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.06 conceded. In past meetings, Free State Stars won 2, Richards Bay won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Dec 18, 2021 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for Free State Stars and 1.11 for Richards Bay. This points to a Free State Stars double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Free State Stars
35%
Draws
29%
Richards Bay
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Free State Stars

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Free State Stars picked up more points recently compared to Richards Bay.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 1.11 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 55%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Free State Stars Clean Sheet 21%
Richards Bay Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 50%
Second Half Goal 52%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Free State Stars Richards Bay
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 9
Draws 10 13
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 0.97 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.06

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 18, 2021 Motsepe Foundation Championship
Free State Stars vs Richards Bay
0:0
Aug 28, 2021 Motsepe Foundation Championship
Richards Bay vs Free State Stars
0:0
Apr 13, 2021 Motsepe Foundation Championship
Richards Bay vs Free State Stars
1:2
Feb 13, 2021 Motsepe Foundation Championship
Free State Stars vs Richards Bay
1:2
Jan 4, 2020 Motsepe Foundation Championship
Free State Stars vs Richards Bay
3:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Free State Stars 37 / 100
Richards Bay 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Free State Stars Richards Bay

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Free State Stars or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.9%
3.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Free State Stars attacking → ← attacking Richards Bay

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Free State Stars scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Richards Bay let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Free State Stars went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Richards Bay lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 40
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Richards Bay301412439:2254
2Pretoria U.301313440:2652
3Cape Town All Stars301212637:2648
4JDR Stars30129932:2845
5Venda301014626:2444
6Polokwane City301181142:3741
7Free State Stars301011926:2441
8Uthongathi30815727:2539
9Black Leopards301091130:2939
10Platinum City301081230:4638
11Hungry Lions308121027:2736
12Pretoria Callies301051533:3235
13Tshakhuma Tsha Madzivhandila30971426:4534
14Cape Town Spurs30615927:3233
15Jomo Cosmos305131227:3428
16TS Sporting30771622:3428