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Garden Village vs Aberbargoed Buds

Wales Wales

Division 1
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Garden Village play Aberbargoed Buds in the Division 1. It looks like a close match. Recently, Garden Village averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.85 conceded. Aberbargoed Buds averaged 1.87 goals scored and 2.27 conceded. In past meetings, Garden Village won 0, Aberbargoed Buds won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 11, 2020 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.97 for Garden Village and 0.88 for Aberbargoed Buds. This points to a Garden Village double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Garden Village
29%
Draws
31%
Aberbargoed Buds
Draw rate projection: 29% Favored: Garden Village

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Garden Village picked up more points recently compared to Aberbargoed Buds.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.97 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 77%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 77%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72%
Garden Village Clean Sheet 25%
Aberbargoed Buds Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Garden Village Aberbargoed Buds
Matches Played 20 15
Wins 9 4
Draws 3 4
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.6 1.87
Goals Conceded 1.85 2.27

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2020 Division 1
Aberbargoed Buds vs Garden Village
0:0
Feb 8, 2020 Division 1
Garden Village vs Aberbargoed Buds
0:1
May 18, 2016 Division 1
Aberbargoed Buds vs Garden Village
2:2
Feb 13, 2016 Division 1
Garden Village vs Aberbargoed Buds
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Garden Village Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Aberbargoed Buds Compare

Top Goalscorer Brewer J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Garden Village 41 / 100
Aberbargoed Buds 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Garden Village Aberbargoed Buds

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Garden Village or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.6%
1.41
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Garden Village attacking → ← attacking Aberbargoed Buds

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Garden Village scored in 75% of their last 20 games.

Aberbargoed Buds let in goals in 93% of their last 15 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Garden Village went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Aberbargoed Buds lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 16
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00