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GD Sourense vs Nogueirense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2017/2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nogueirense in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2017/2018 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nogueirense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
GD Sourense
39%
Draws
31%
Nogueirense
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Nogueirense have won more games recently than GD Sourense.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
GD Sourense Clean Sheet 20%
Nogueirense Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GD Sourense Nogueirense
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 3 10
Draws 8 9
Losses 19 13
Goals Scored 0 1.13
Goals Conceded 1 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 11, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Sourense vs Nogueirense
0:2
Nov 5, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Nogueirense vs GD Sourense
1:1
Jan 11, 2015 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E
Nogueirense vs GD Sourense
3:2
Nov 2, 2014 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E
GD Sourense vs Nogueirense
3:1
Apr 13, 2014 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E
GD Sourense vs Nogueirense
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GD Sourense 31 / 100
Nogueirense 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GD Sourense Nogueirense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SOU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

GD Sourense scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Nogueirense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Away concern: Nogueirense has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

GD Sourense VS Nogueirense
0 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

GD Sourense

(Home)
31 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
1 : 0
GD Sourense
22 Apr
GD Sourense
1 : 2
Marinhense
15 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
3 : 2
GD Sourense
08 Apr
GD Sourense
1 : 2
Maritimo B
31 Mar
Fornos de Algodres
1 : 1
GD Sourense
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Nogueirense

(Away)
12 May
Vilafranquense
2 : 1
Nogueirense
05 May
Nogueirense
1 : 2
Alverca
28 Apr
Leiria
4 : 0
Nogueirense
20 Apr
Nogueirense
1 : 2
Anadia
14 Apr
Sertanense
1 : 2
Nogueirense
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Leiria30234368:2173
2Lusitano FCV30205547:1965
3SB Castelo Branco30178548:2359
4Sertanense30158751:2253
5Agueda30147939:3249
6Gafanha30139836:2348
7Anadia301210839:2846
8Maritimo B301431344:3045
9Nogueirense301191037:3842
10Oleiros301261235:3642
11Marinhense301181143:4141
12Mortagua FC301131623:4036
13Ferreira de Aves30921934:6929
14Aguias do Moradal30561929:5421
15GD Sourense30381928:5717
16Fornos de Algodres30042615:834
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2017/2018 (Play Offs)