Sport Picks

Kazakhstan

First Division 2013

Kaspij Aktau

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Gefest Karagandy play Kaspij Aktau in the First Division 2013. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gefest Karagandy averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.85 conceded. Kaspij Aktau averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.16 conceded. In past meetings, Gefest Karagandy won 1, Kaspij Aktau won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 2, 2014 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for Gefest Karagandy and 0.99 for Kaspij Aktau. This points to a Kaspij Aktau double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Gefest Karagandy

15%

Draws

54%

Kaspij Aktau

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kaspij Aktau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence

Gefest Karagandy picked up more points recently compared to Kaspij Aktau.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 0.99 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 78%

Over 2.5 Goals 65%

Over 3.5 Goals 39%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%

Gefest Karagandy Clean Sheet 23%

Kaspij Aktau Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 70%

Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Gefest Karagandy	Kaspij Aktau
Matches Played	34	44
Wins	10	25
Draws	3	3
Losses	21	16
Goals Scored	0.82	1.8
Goals Conceded	1.85	1.16

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 2, 2014 First League

Kaspij Aktau vs Gefest Karagandy

Possession: 44% - 41% Cards: 3 - 1

3:0

Apr 12, 2014 First League

Gefest Karagandy vs Kaspij Aktau

Possession: 47% - 51% Cards: 0 - 1

1:2

Oct 1, 2013 First League

Gefest Karagandy vs Kaspij Aktau

Possession: 53% - 59% Cards: 3 - 3

2:1

Apr 23, 2013 First League

Kaspij Aktau vs Gefest Karagandy

Possession: 48% - 56% Cards: 2 - 3

1:1

Apr 10, 2013 Kazakhstan Cup

Kaspij Aktau vs Gefest Karagandy

Possession: 58% - 51% Cards: 1 - 2

3:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gefest Karagandy 33 / 100

Kaspij Aktau 51 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Gefest Karagandy Kaspij Aktau

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kaspij Aktau Win (2)

Secondary Pick Kaspij Aktau & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +34.8%

4.35

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.9%

1.69

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gefest Karagandy attacking → ← attacking Kaspij Aktau

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gefest Karagandy scored in 47% of their last 34 games.

Kaspij Aktau let in goals in 64% of their last 44 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Gefest Karagandy went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Kaspij Aktau lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 78

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kaisar Kyzylorda	34	23	8	3	77:20	74
2	Spartak Semey	34	21	7	6	54:24	70
3	Okzhetpes	34	20	7	7	51:27	67
4	Kyzylzhar	34	20	5	9	52:35	65
5	Kaspij Aktau	34	19	8	7	55:31	65
6	Ile-Saulet	34	19	8	7	66:32	65
7	Zhenis	34	15	13	6	51:37	58
8	FK Kyran	34	16	7	11	53:39	55
9	Sunkar	34	16	9	9	48:33	48
10	Ak Bulak	34	14	6	14	49:39	48
11	Gefest Karagandy	34	12	8	14	37:46	44
12	FC Ekibastuz	34	9	13	12	34:36	40
13	Shakhtar Bulat	34	7	9	18	28:42	30
14	Taraz-Karatau 2	34	5	9	20	28:57	24
15	Bayterek Astana	34	8	5	21	32:67	23
16	Maqtaaral	34	5	7	22	29:62	22
17	CSKA Almaty	34	5	4	25	29:79	19
18	Shymkent	34	2	7	25	27:94	13