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Gelbison vs Athletic Palermo Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Cascio F.
42' Event
Grillo P.
90' Event
Castro M.

AI Match Summary

Gelbison in this Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gelbison.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Gelbison
20%
Draws
40%
Athletic Palermo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gelbison lately — more wins on the board than Athletic Palermo.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Gelbison Clean Sheet 15%
Athletic Palermo Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gelbison Athletic Palermo
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 15
Draws 5 3
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.38 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Athletic Palermo
2:1
Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Athletic Palermo vs Gelbison
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gelbison Compare

Top Goalscorer Cascio F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Castro M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Athletic Palermo Compare

Top Goalscorer Grillo P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gelbison 31 / 100
Athletic Palermo 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gelbison Athletic Palermo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Athletic Palermo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Gelbison scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Gelbison stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gelbison VS Athletic Palermo
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gelbison

(Home)
27 Sept
Paganese
2 : 3
Gelbison
20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1
Gelbison
16 Sept
Gelbison
2 : 1
Budoni Calcio
13 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
2 : 1
Gelbison
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0
Afragolese
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Athletic Palermo

(Away)
27 Sept
Athletic Palermo
3 : 0
Milazzo
20 Sept
Vibonese
3 : 0
Athletic Palermo
16 Sept
Athletic Palermo
1 : 1
Digiesse PraiaTortora
13 Sept
Athletic Palermo
3 : 0
Enna
06 Sept
Siracusa
4 : 2
Athletic Palermo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)