Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Germany vs Italy

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Our Tip

Match Events

21'
Gatti F.
22'
Stiller A.
29'
Buongiorno A.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-3. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Germany
15%
Draws
42%
Italy
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Germany

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Italy have managed 1.82 goals a game lately — Germany are scoring more at 2.48.
  • 43% — that's where the model lands on Germany taking it.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Germany, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 65.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Germany Clean Sheet 68%
Italy Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Germany Italy
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 17 17
Draws 4 4
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 2.48 1.82
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 2.12 0.80
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 23, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Germany vs Italy
3:3
Mar 20, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Italy vs Germany
1:2
Jun 14, 2022 UEFA Nations League
Germany vs Italy
5:2
Jun 4, 2022 UEFA Nations League
Italy vs Germany
1:1
Mar 31, 2020 Friendly International
Germany vs Italy
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Germany Compare

Top Goalscorer Musiala J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kleindienst T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.63
Avg xA / game 1.06

Italy Compare

Top Goalscorer Kean M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.73
Avg xA / game 0.44

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Germany 50 / 100
Italy 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Germany Italy

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Germany Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Germany found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (27 games).

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Italy conceded in 61% of 28 recent games.

Solid form: Germany remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Germany VS Italy
3.38 Goals Scored 0.86
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.86
88% Over 1.5 43%
75% Over 2.5 29%
50% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Germany

(Home)
29 Jun
Germany
1 : 2
Paraguay
25 Jun
Ecuador
2 : 1
Germany
20 Jun
Germany
2 : 1
Ivory Coast
14 Jun
Germany
7 : 1
Curacao
06 Jun
USA
1 : 2
Germany
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Italy

(Away)
07 Jun
Greece
0 : 1
Italy
03 Jun
Luxembourg
0 : 1
Italy
31 Mar
Bosnia & Herzegovina
2 : 1
Italy
26 Mar
Italy
2 : 0
Northern Ireland
16 Nov
Italy
1 : 4
Norway
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Italy 4
Germany 5
Denmark 3
Portugal 5
Netherlands 5
Spain 6
Croatia 2
France 3
Semi-finals
Germany 1
Portugal 2
Spain 5
France 4
Final
Portugal 3
Spain 2
Germany 0
France 2