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Stadium Background

GKS Belchatow vs Olimpia Elblag

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 GIEKSA Arena
Sat, May 2, 2026
0 - 3
03:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Bartosinski J.
58' Event
Debinski A.
82' Event
Kozera D.

AI Match Summary

GKS Belchatow host Olimpia Elblag in the III Liga - Group I 2025/2026. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: GKS Belchatow at 1 goals for, 2.63 against; Olimpia Elblag at 1 for, 1.75 against. Head-to-head, GKS Belchatow have won 0 to Olimpia Elblag's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on May 2, 2026, ending 0:3. xG projections (1.38 - 1.81) back Olimpia Elblag to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
GKS Belchatow
6%
Draws
90%
Olimpia Elblag
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Olimpia Elblag

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Olimpia Elblag lately — more wins on the board than GKS Belchatow.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Olimpia Elblag taking it.
  • Regular III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Olimpia Elblag here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
GKS Belchatow Clean Sheet 11%
Olimpia Elblag Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GKS Belchatow Olimpia Elblag
Matches Played 30 37
Wins 7 16
Draws 6 8
Losses 17 13
Goals Scored 1 1
Goals Conceded 2.63 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.63 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 III Liga - Group I
GKS Belchatow vs Olimpia Elblag
0:3
Oct 11, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Olimpia Elblag vs GKS Belchatow
4:1
Mar 26, 2022 Division 2
GKS Belchatow vs Olimpia Elblag
0:3
Sep 11, 2021 Division 2
Olimpia Elblag vs GKS Belchatow
2:1
Mar 23, 2019 Division 2
GKS Belchatow vs Olimpia Elblag
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

GKS Belchatow Compare

Top Goalscorer Bartosinski J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Debinski A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Olimpia Elblag Compare

Top Goalscorer Kozera D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GKS Belchatow 10 / 100
Olimpia Elblag 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GKS Belchatow Olimpia Elblag

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick OLI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

GKS Belchatow's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Olimpia Elblag conceded in 62% of 37 recent games.

Difficult form: Olimpia Elblag registered 2 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

GKS Belchatow VS Olimpia Elblag
1 Goals Scored 1
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Legia II34273482:2984
2LKS Lomza34225777:3171
3Warta Sieradz34218564:3471
4Suwalki34205964:4365
5Troszyn341761175:4757
6Plock II341681056:5156
7Widzew Lodz II341731470:6454
8Jagiellonia II341471346:4549
9Tomaszow Mazowiecki341381364:5547
10Zabkovia Zabki341351672:6444
11Swit Mazowiecki341251751:6641
12MKS Mlawa341171655:5940
13Olimpia Elblag341081645:6138
14GKS Wikielec341071740:5437
15Bron Radom34991640:5736
16GKS Belchatow34971850:7634
17Wasilkow34742340:7925
18Znicz Biala Piska34432727:10315