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GKS Belchatow vs Olimpia Elblag Prediction & H2H Stats

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 GIEKSA Arena, Belchatow
Sat, May 2, 2026
0 - 3
03:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Bartosinski J.
58' Event
Debinski A.
82' Event
Kozera D.

AI Match Summary

GKS Belchatow host Olimpia Elblag in the III Liga - Group I 2025/2026. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: GKS Belchatow at 1.48 goals for, 2.13 against; Olimpia Elblag at 1.24 for, 1.62 against. Head-to-head, GKS Belchatow have won 0 to Olimpia Elblag's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on May 2, 2026, ending 0:3. xG projections (1.79 - 1.51) back Olimpia Elblag to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
GKS Belchatow
15%
Draws
39%
Olimpia Elblag
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: GKS Belchatow

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Olimpia Elblag lately — more wins on the board than GKS Belchatow.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on GKS Belchatow taking it.
  • Regular III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Olimpia Elblag here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 42.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
GKS Belchatow Clean Sheet 15%
Olimpia Elblag Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GKS Belchatow Olimpia Elblag
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 8 9
Draws 6 5
Losses 17 15
Goals Scored 1.48 1.24
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.79 1.51
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 III Liga - Group I
GKS Belchatow vs Olimpia Elblag
0:3
Oct 11, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Olimpia Elblag vs GKS Belchatow
4:1
Mar 26, 2022 Division 2
GKS Belchatow vs Olimpia Elblag
0:3
Sep 11, 2021 Division 2
Olimpia Elblag vs GKS Belchatow
2:1
Mar 23, 2019 Division 2
GKS Belchatow vs Olimpia Elblag
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

GKS Belchatow Compare

Top Goalscorer Bartosinski J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Debinski A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.38
Avg xA / game 0.9

Olimpia Elblag Compare

Top Goalscorer Kozera D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.37
Avg xA / game 0.84

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GKS Belchatow 66 / 100
Olimpia Elblag 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GKS Belchatow Olimpia Elblag

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GKS Belchatow Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

GKS Belchatow's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Olimpia Elblag conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

GKS Belchatow has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

GKS Belchatow VS Olimpia Elblag
2.2 Goals Scored 1.63
1.4 Goals Conceded 1.38
60% Over 1.5 100%
60% Over 2.5 50%
60% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

GKS Belchatow

(Home)
31 Jul
GKS Belchatow
3 : 2
Gornik Konin
22 Jul
GKS Belchatow
4 : 4
RKS Rakow Czestochowa II
18 Jul
GKS Belchatow
4 : 1
Tluchowo
11 Jul
GKS Belchatow
1 : 2
Polonia Nysa
30 May
Plock II
4 : 1
GKS Belchatow
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Olimpia Elblag

(Away)
03 Oct
LKS Lomza
0 : 2
Olimpia Elblag
26 Sept
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 2
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
19 Sept
KTS Weszlo
2 : 1
Olimpia Elblag
12 Sept
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 0
Pelikan
04 Sept
Warta Sieradz
4 : 1
Olimpia Elblag
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Legia II 34 27 3 4 82:29 84
2 LKS Lomza 34 22 5 7 77:31 71
3 Warta Sieradz 34 21 8 5 64:34 71
4 Suwalki 34 20 5 9 64:43 65
5 Troszyn 34 17 6 11 75:47 57
6 Plock II 34 16 8 10 56:51 56
7 Widzew Lodz II 34 17 3 14 70:64 54
8 Jagiellonia II 34 14 7 13 46:45 49
9 Tomaszow Mazowiecki 34 13 8 13 64:55 47
10 Zabkovia Zabki 34 13 5 16 72:64 44
11 Swit Mazowiecki 34 12 5 17 51:66 41
12 MKS Mlawa 34 11 7 16 55:59 40
13 Olimpia Elblag 34 10 8 16 45:61 38
14 GKS Wikielec 34 10 7 17 40:54 37
15 Bron Radom 34 9 9 16 40:57 36
16 GKS Belchatow 34 9 7 18 50:76 34
17 Wasilkow 34 7 4 23 40:79 25
18 Znicz Biala Piska 34 4 3 27 27:103 15
Promotion - Division 2 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)