Sport Picks

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Glenavon vs Newington FC

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Championship Mourneview Park, Lurgan
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The NIFL Championship game between Glenavon and Newington FC finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Glenavon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Glenavon
30%
Draws
39%
Newington FC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Newington FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Newington FC come out ahead of Glenavon on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this NIFL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Glenavon have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Glenavon Clean Sheet 10%
Newington FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Glenavon Newington FC
Matches Played 32 32
Wins 10 18
Draws 7 3
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.44 2
Goals Conceded 1.56 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 NIFL Championship
Glenavon vs Newington FC
1:0
Jan 13, 2026 Irish Cup
Glenavon vs Newington FC
4:2
Oct 1, 2024 Irish League Cup
Newington FC vs Glenavon
2:3
Feb 3, 2009 Irish Cup
Glenavon vs Newington FC
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Glenavon 34 / 100
Newington FC 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Glenavon Newington FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newington FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Glenavon found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (32 games).

Newington FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 32 matches.

Recent resilience: Glenavon stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Glenavon VS Newington FC
2.13 Goals Scored 2.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Glenavon

(Home)
19 Sept
Glenavon
1 : 0
Newington FC
12 Sept
Ballinamallard
1 : 1
Glenavon
05 Sept
Dundela
3 : 2
Glenavon
28 Aug
Glenavon
3 : 1
Rathfriland Rangers
22 Aug
Armagh
2 : 2
Glenavon
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Newington FC

(Away)
19 Sept
Glenavon
1 : 0
Newington FC
12 Sept
Newington FC
5 : 5
Dundela
05 Sept
Warrenpoint
0 : 1
Newington FC
28 Aug
Strabane Athletic
1 : 2
Newington FC
22 Aug
Newington FC
4 : 0
Rathfriland Rangers
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Newington FC 9 6 2 1 24:11 20
2 Annagh 9 6 2 1 23:12 20
3 Glenavon 9 5 2 2 22:13 17
4 Queens University 9 5 1 3 18:7 16
5 Harland & Wolff 9 5 0 4 17:13 15
6 Newry City 9 4 3 2 15:16 15
7 Warrenpoint 9 4 1 4 17:14 13
8 Ballinamallard 9 4 1 4 15:15 13
9 Institute 9 4 1 4 13:17 13
10 Dundela 9 2 5 2 18:18 11
11 Ards 9 3 2 4 11:12 11
12 Moyola 9 3 2 4 10:17 11
13 Loughgall 9 2 4 3 12:18 10
14 Strabane Athletic 9 2 2 5 10:19 8
15 Armagh 9 0 4 5 8:16 4
16 Rathfriland Rangers 9 1 0 8 6:21 3
Promotion - NIFL Championship (Promotion Group)
Relegation - NIFL Championship (Relegation Group)