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Gold Coast Knights SC vs Moreton City Excelsior

Australia Australia

NPL Queensland Croatian Sports Centre
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Walters M.
25' Event
Cobb T.
65' Event
Ludwik A.

AI Match Summary

Gold Coast Knights SC in this NPL Queensland matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gold Coast Knights SC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Gold Coast Knights SC
20%
Draws
38%
Moreton City Excelsior
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gold Coast Knights SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Moreton City Excelsior lately — more wins on the board than Gold Coast Knights SC.
  • Gold Coast Knights SC are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular NPL Queensland form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Gold Coast Knights SC Clean Sheet 11%
Moreton City Excelsior Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gold Coast Knights SC Moreton City Excelsior
Matches Played 31 34
Wins 17 19
Draws 5 6
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 2.38 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.75 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 NPL Queensland
Gold Coast Knights SC vs Moreton City Excelsior
2:1
Feb 20, 2026 NPL Queensland
Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights SC
4:1
Aug 15, 2025 NPL Queensland
Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights SC
4:0
May 2, 2025 NPL Queensland
Gold Coast Knights SC vs Moreton City Excelsior
1:0
Aug 2, 2024 NPL Queensland
Gold Coast Knights SC vs Moreton City Excelsior
2:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gold Coast Knights SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Cobb T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ludwik A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Moreton City Excelsior Compare

Top Goalscorer Walters M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gold Coast Knights SC 40 / 100
Moreton City Excelsior 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gold Coast Knights SC Moreton City Excelsior

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Gold Coast Knights SC scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Defensive concern: Moreton City Excelsior conceded in 71% of 34 recent games.

Gold Coast Knights SC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gold Coast Knights SC VS Moreton City Excelsior
2.38 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Queensland Lions19142350:2044
2Peninsula19134245:2243
3Moreton City Excelsior19113549:3036
4Gold Coast Knights SC18103541:2733
5Brisbane City1986541:4130
6Wynnum Wolves1985631:3529
7Eastern Suburbs1991933:3128
8Olympic FC18621031:3820
9Magic United TFA FC19511328:5516
10Rochedale19431229:4815
11Gold Coast Utd18411322:3613
12Brisbane Roar U2318411326:4313