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Gran Pena vs Barco

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Santin D.
9' Event
Castro B.
44' Event
Rodriguez I.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between Gran Pena and Barco finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gran Pena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Gran Pena
15%
Draws
32%
Barco
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gran Pena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Barco come out ahead of Gran Pena on wins alone.
  • Gran Pena are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Gran Pena Clean Sheet 68%
Barco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gran Pena Barco
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 12 14
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.79 1.15
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Barco
4:2
Oct 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Barco vs Gran Pena
1:2
Feb 18, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Barco vs Gran Pena
1:0
Oct 22, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Barco
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gran Pena Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cellerino G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Barco Compare

Top Goalscorer Santin D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Castro B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gran Pena 95 / 100
Barco 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gran Pena Barco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gran Pena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gran Pena's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Barco's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 33 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Gran Pena has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Gran Pena VS Barco
2 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gran Pena

(Home)
20 Sept
Gran Pena
0 : 0
Antela
13 Sept
Pontevedra B
1 : 2
Gran Pena
06 Sept
Gran Pena
1 : 2
Lalin
10 May
Noia
1 : 5
Gran Pena
03 May
Gran Pena
4 : 1
Racing Club Villalbes
Page 1 of 6

Barco

(Away)
20 Sept
Barco
2 : 1
Portonovo SD
12 Sept
Barco
1 : 2
Silva SD
06 Sept
Arenteiro
0 : 1
Barco
19 Aug
UD Ourense
2 : 0
Barco
10 May
Estradense
3 : 1
Barco
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arosa SC 34 20 10 4 58:35 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 55:28 68
3 Atletico Arteixo 34 16 10 8 54:44 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 46:33 53
5 Racing Club Villalbes 34 13 13 8 36:29 52
6 Gran Pena 34 13 12 9 57:42 51
7 Somozas 34 13 12 9 37:32 51
8 CD Boiro 34 13 12 9 45:29 51
9 Lugo B 34 12 12 10 41:35 48
10 Montaneros 34 12 12 10 48:42 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 35:41 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45:48 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 47:48 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 27:41 38
15 Silva SD 34 9 9 16 36:48 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 24:43 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 28:57 25
18 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 4 7 23 25:69 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)