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Gran Pena vs Paiosaco

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Millan A.
80' Event
Quintans C.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Gran Pena
20%
Draws
40%
Paiosaco
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Gran Pena have won more games recently than Paiosaco.
  • Gran Pena are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 27%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Gran Pena Clean Sheet 68%
Paiosaco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gran Pena Paiosaco
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 9
Draws 9 9
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.74 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 7, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Paiosaco
1:1
Nov 19, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Paiosaco vs Gran Pena
0:1
Feb 26, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Paiosaco
5:1
Oct 30, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Paiosaco vs Gran Pena
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gran Pena Compare

Top Goalscorer Millan A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Paiosaco Compare

Top Goalscorer Quintans C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gran Pena 95 / 100
Paiosaco 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gran Pena Paiosaco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gran Pena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 2:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gran Pena found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (31 games).

Paiosaco's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.25 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Gran Pena remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Gran Pena VS -
1.75 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Gran Pena

(Home)
20 Sept
Gran Pena
0 : 0
Antela
13 Sept
Pontevedra B
1 : 2
Gran Pena
06 Sept
Gran Pena
1 : 2
Lalin
10 May
Noia
1 : 5
Gran Pena
03 May
Gran Pena
4 : 1
Racing Club Villalbes
Page 1 of 7

Paiosaco

(Away)
12 May
Paiosaco
1 : 0
Lugo B
05 May
UD Ourense
3 : 0
Paiosaco
01 May
Barbadas-Bentraces
0 : 0
Paiosaco
27 Apr
Paiosaco
1 : 0
Pontevedra B
21 Apr
Arzua
1 : 2
Paiosaco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bergantinos 34 21 10 3 49:19 73
2 Gran Pena 34 15 16 3 48:30 61
3 Arosa SC 34 15 13 6 39:23 58
4 UD Ourense 34 15 10 9 47:34 55
5 Sarriana 34 14 8 12 43:35 50
6 Atletico Arteixo 34 11 14 9 46:39 47
7 Somozas 34 12 9 13 43:39 45
8 Estradense 34 11 12 11 31:32 45
9 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 10 14 10 33:34 44
10 Viveiro 34 12 8 14 39:42 44
11 Alondras 34 10 14 10 37:36 44
12 Silva SD 34 11 10 13 35:35 43
13 Lugo B 34 11 10 13 32:34 43
14 Betanzos CF 34 10 13 11 35:31 43
15 Rapido de Bouzas 34 11 9 14 38:40 42
16 Paiosaco 34 10 11 13 30:42 41
17 Pontevedra B 34 7 5 22 27:65 26
18 Arzua 34 4 6 24 24:66 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 (Play Offs)