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Greenville Triumph vs Sarasota Paradise

USA USA

USL League One Paladin Stadium
Wed, Jul 8, 2026
VS
11:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Greenville Triumph play Sarasota Paradise in the USL League One. It looks like a close match. Recently, Greenville Triumph averaged 1 goals scored and 1.66 conceded. Sarasota Paradise averaged 1.69 goals scored and 1.55 conceded. In past meetings, Greenville Triumph won 2, Sarasota Paradise won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 12, 2025 ended 1-0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Greenville Triumph and 1.44 for Sarasota Paradise. This points to a Sarasota Paradise double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Greenville Triumph
15%
Draws
48%
Sarasota Paradise
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sarasota Paradise

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Greenville Triumph picked up more points recently compared to Sarasota Paradise.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Greenville Triumph Clean Sheet 16%
Sarasota Paradise Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Greenville Triumph Sarasota Paradise
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 11
Draws 5 2
Losses 17 16
Goals Scored 1 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.66 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2025 USL League One
Greenville Triumph vs Sarasota Paradise
1-0
Apr 12, 2025 USL League One
Sarasota Paradise vs Greenville Triumph
2-0
Mar 12, 2025 USL League One
Greenville Triumph vs Sarasota Paradise
0-1
Feb 12, 2025 USL League One
Sarasota Paradise vs Greenville Triumph
1-1
Jan 12, 2025 USL League One
Greenville Triumph vs Sarasota Paradise
2-1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Greenville Triumph 37 / 100
Sarasota Paradise 46 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Greenville Triumph Sarasota Paradise

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Sarasota Paradise or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Greenville Triumph attacking → ← attacking Sarasota Paradise

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Greenville Triumph scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Sarasota Paradise let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Greenville Triumph went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Sarasota Paradise lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

26 Points in last 5 35
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Union Omaha1591522:1728
2One Knoxville1383224:1127
3Charlotte Independence1282231:1626
4AV Alta FC1466221:1424
5Spokane Velocity1372417:1723
6Athletic Club Boise1463521:2121
7Fort Wayne1356217:1221
8Forward Madison1262421:1420
9FC Naples1552816:2317
10Portland Hearts of Pine1445521:2217
11Chattanooga Red Wolves1051419:1316
12Sarasota Paradise16511017:2816
13Corpus Christi FC1436517:2315
14Westchester SC1342723:2014
15Richmond Kickers1332812:2411
16Greenville Triumph1131711:2110
17New York Cosmos1221916:307