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Grimsby vs Shrewsbury

England England

EFL Cup 2025/2026 Blundell Park, Cleethorpes
Grimsby Logo

Grimsby

3 - 1
FT
Shrewsbury Logo

Shrewsbury

Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Benning M.
15' Event
Amaluzor J.
Assist: Turi G. D.
26'
Anderson T.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Grimsby in this EFL Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Grimsby
11%
Draws
9%
Shrewsbury
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Grimsby

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Shrewsbury haven't matched Grimsby's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Grimsby a 80% chance of winning this.
  • Grimsby have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Grimsby, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Grimsby Clean Sheet 68%
Shrewsbury Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Grimsby Shrewsbury
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 13 11
Draws 9 5
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.75 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 29, 2025 League Two
Grimsby vs Shrewsbury
1:0
Dec 9, 2025 League Two
Shrewsbury vs Grimsby
1:1
Aug 12, 2025 EFL Cup
Grimsby vs Shrewsbury
3:1
Dec 15, 2015 FA Cup
Shrewsbury vs Grimsby
1:0
Dec 7, 2015 FA Cup
Grimsby vs Shrewsbury
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Grimsby Compare

Top Goalscorer Amaluzor J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gardner C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Shrewsbury Compare

Top Goalscorer Sang T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Grimsby 86 / 100
Shrewsbury 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Grimsby Shrewsbury

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GRI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Grimsby scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Grimsby went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Shrewsbury's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Grimsby VS Shrewsbury
1.75 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Grimsby

(Home)
29 Jul
Boston United
0 : 0
Grimsby
28 Jul
Grimsby
5 : 1
Lincoln City
25 Jul
Hartlepool
0 : 3
Grimsby
18 Jul
Zorya
1 : 1
Grimsby
11 Jul
Cleethorpes
0 : 0
Grimsby
Page 1 of 6

Shrewsbury

(Away)
28 Jul
Hereford
1 : 1
Shrewsbury
25 Jul
Shrewsbury
1 : 4
West Brom
21 Jul
Shrewsbury
1 : 0
Everton U21
19 Jul
Shrewsbury
4 : 0
Isle of Man
17 Jul
Radcliffe
1 : 0
Shrewsbury
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/64-finals
Barrow0
Preston1
Wrexham4
Hull City3
Portsmouth1
Reading2
Gillingham1
AFC Wimbledon2
Burnley-
TBD-
West Brom1
Derby2
Cardiff2
Swindon1
Cheltenham2
Exeter0
Wolves-
TBD-
TBD-
West Ham-
Everton-
TBD-
Chesterfield0
Mansfield2
Tranmere1
Burton2
Harrogate1
Lincoln City3
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Chelsea-
Birmingham2
Sheffield Utd1
Blackpool0
Port Vale1
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Arsenal-
Barnsley3
Fleetwood Town2
Salford0
Rotherham1
Oxford Utd1
Colchester0
TBD-
Brighton-
Liverpool-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Watford1
Norwich2
Northampton0
Southampton1
Crystal Palace-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Newport0
Millwall1
Coventry1
Luton0
Newcastle Utd-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Stoke City1
Walsall0
Blackburn1
Bradford City2
Tottenham-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Accrington2
Peterborough1
Middlesbrough0
Doncaster4
Wigan1
Notts County0
Stockport County3
Crewe1
Bromley2
Ipswich1
Leyton Orient0
Wycombe1
Fulham-
TBD-
Bristol City2
Milton Keynes Dons0
Bristol Rovers0
Cambridge Utd2
Charlton3
Stevenage1
Swansea3
Crawley Town1
Plymouth3
QPR2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Nottingham-
Sunderland-
TBD-
Huddersfield3
Leicester2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Manchester City-
Bolton3
Sheffield Wed4
TBD-
Leeds-
Grimsby3
Shrewsbury1
TBD-
Manchester United-
Bournemouth-
TBD-
TBD-
Brentford-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Aston Villa-
1/32-finals
Preston2
Wrexham3
Reading2
AFC Wimbledon1
Burnley2
Derby1
Cardiff3
Cheltenham0
Wolves3
West Ham2
Everton2
Mansfield0
Burton0
Lincoln City1
TBD-
Chelsea-
Birmingham0
Port Vale1
TBD-
Arsenal-
Barnsley2
Rotherham1
Oxford Utd0
Brighton6
Liverpool-
TBD-
Norwich0
Southampton3
Crystal Palace-
TBD-
Millwall2
Coventry1
Newcastle Utd-
TBD-
Stoke City0
Bradford City3
Tottenham-
TBD-
Accrington0
Doncaster2
Wigan1
Stockport County0
Bromley1
Wycombe2
Fulham2
Bristol City0
Cambridge Utd3
Charlton1
Swansea2
Plymouth1
TBD-
Nottingham-
Sunderland1
Huddersfield2
TBD-
Manchester City-
Sheffield Wed2
Leeds1
Grimsby3
Manchester United2
Bournemouth0
Brentford2
TBD-
Aston Villa-
1/16-finals
Wrexham2
Reading0
Burnley1
Cardiff2
Wolves2
Everton0
Lincoln City1
Chelsea2
Port Vale0
Arsenal2
Barnsley0
Brighton6
Liverpool2
Southampton1
Crystal Palace2
Millwall1
Newcastle Utd4
Bradford City1
Tottenham3
Doncaster0
Wigan0
Wycombe2
Fulham1
Cambridge Utd0
Swansea3
Nottingham2
Huddersfield0
Manchester City2
Sheffield Wed0
Grimsby1
Brentford2
Aston Villa1
1/8-finals
Wrexham1
Cardiff2
Wolves3
Chelsea4
Arsenal2
Brighton0
Liverpool0
Crystal Palace3
Newcastle Utd2
Tottenham0
Wycombe1
Fulham2
Swansea1
Manchester City3
Grimsby0
Brentford5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff1
Chelsea3
Arsenal2
Crystal Palace1
Newcastle Utd2
Fulham1
Manchester City2
Brentford0
Semi-finals
Chelsea2
Arsenal4
Newcastle Utd1
Manchester City5
Final
Arsenal0
Manchester City2