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Groningen vs Willem II - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Euroborg, Groningen
Fri, Nov 27, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Groningen host Willem II in the Eredivisie. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Willem II have shipped 1.89 goals a game lately, while Groningen have conceded 1.76 and scored 1.69. Past meetings favor Groningen slightly — 3-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 15, 2025, ending 1:3. xG projections (2.56 - 1.50) back Groningen to edge this. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Groningen
15%
Draws
36%
Willem II
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Groningen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Groningen haven't matched Willem II's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Groningen's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Groningen Clean Sheet 16%
Willem II Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Groningen Willem II
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 13
Draws 6 4
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.69 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.89
Expected Goals (xG) 2.56 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2025 Eredivisie
Willem II vs Groningen
1:3
Nov 30, 2024 Eredivisie
Groningen vs Willem II
2:0
Apr 26, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Willem II vs Groningen
1:1
Dec 19, 2023 KNVB Beker
Willem II vs Groningen
1:3
Aug 27, 2023 Eerste Divisie
Groningen vs Willem II
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Groningen 84 / 100
Willem II 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Groningen Willem II

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Groningen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Groningen found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Willem II has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Willem II lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Groningen VS Willem II
2.13 Goals Scored 1
2 Goals Conceded 3
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Groningen

(Home)
01 Nov
Groningen
2 : 3
Sparta Rotterdam
29 Oct
Groningen
0 : 2
FC Emmen
25 Oct
Nijmegen
2 : 2
Groningen
18 Oct
Groningen
2 : 5
Ajax
11 Oct
Excelsior
1 : 5
Groningen
Page 1 of 6

Willem II

(Away)
31 Oct
PSV
7 : 0
Willem II
27 Oct
Helmond Sport
3 : 4
Willem II
24 Oct
Willem II
1 : 6
Cambuur
17 Oct
Sparta Rotterdam
3 : 2
Willem II
11 Oct
Utrecht
3 : 1
Willem II
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Feyenoord 11 7 4 0 33:12 25
2 Ajax 11 7 3 1 30:13 24
3 PSV 11 7 2 2 35:13 23
4 Twente 11 7 2 2 28:10 23
5 AZ Alkmaar 11 6 2 3 20:13 20
6 Sittard 11 5 4 2 18:18 19
7 Heerenveen 11 5 3 3 19:13 18
8 Groningen 11 4 3 4 26:24 15
9 Cambuur 11 4 3 4 23:22 15
10 G.A. Eagles 11 3 5 3 23:27 14
11 Sparta Rotterdam 11 3 3 5 20:26 12
12 Utrecht 11 3 3 5 19:31 12
13 Nijmegen 11 2 5 4 17:19 11
14 Zwolle 11 3 2 6 12:23 11
15 Excelsior 11 3 2 6 16:28 11
16 Telstar 11 2 3 6 16:23 9
17 Den Haag 11 1 3 7 13:24 6
18 Willem II 11 0 2 9 10:39 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)