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Stadium Background

Guarani de Palhoca vs Hercilio Luz

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Goncalo G.
45' Event
Hugo Costa
90' Event
Vinicius Baracioli

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense 2 game between Guarani de Palhoca and Hercilio Luz finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hercilio Luz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Guarani de Palhoca
6%
Draws
90%
Hercilio Luz
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Hercilio Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Hercilio Luz come out ahead of Guarani de Palhoca on wins alone.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Hercilio Luz taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Guarani de Palhoca Clean Sheet 10%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarani de Palhoca Hercilio Luz
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 13
Draws 8 6
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.38 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Catarinense 2
Guarani de Palhoca vs Hercilio Luz
1:2
May 10, 2026 Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs Guarani de Palhoca
6:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarani de Palhoca Compare

Top Goalscorer Goncalo G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Hercilio Luz Compare

Top Goalscorer Hugo Costa
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vinicius Baracioli
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarani de Palhoca 10 / 100
Hercilio Luz 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarani de Palhoca Hercilio Luz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HER Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.50 goals as a typical output.

Guarani de Palhoca's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Hercilio Luz let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

Guarani de Palhoca has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Guarani de Palhoca VS Hercilio Luz
1.38 Goals Scored 2.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarani de Palhoca

(Home)
19 Jul
Guarani de Palhoca
1 : 1
Blumenau
15 Jul
Fluminense-SC
1 : 1
Guarani de Palhoca
12 Jul
Gremio Juventus
1 : 0
Guarani de Palhoca
04 Jul
Guarani de Palhoca
1 : 2
Hercilio Luz
28 Jun
Caravaggio
2 : 3
Guarani de Palhoca
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Hercilio Luz

(Away)
19 Jul
Tubarao
0 : 2
Hercilio Luz
15 Jul
Hercilio Luz
1 : 0
Gremio Juventus
12 Jul
Blumenau
0 : 2
Hercilio Luz
04 Jul
Guarani de Palhoca
1 : 2
Hercilio Luz
28 Jun
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2
Fluminense-SC
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz16122233:938
2CA Metropolitano17112433:1835
3Caravaggio1694344:1931
4Blumenau1784532:1528
5Tubarao1765623:1923
6Nacao1756618:2421
7Fluminense-SC1763816:2221
8Guarani de Palhoca1755722:2420
9Gremio Juventus17521016:2317
10Jaragua-SC1701166:701
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)