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Guarani-MG vs Villa Real

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Mineiro 3 2023 game between Guarani-MG and Villa Real finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Villa Real.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Guarani-MG
20%
Draws
40%
Villa Real
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Guarani-MG come out ahead of Villa Real on wins alone.
  • Guarani-MG are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Mineiro 3 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Guarani-MG here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.6%
Guarani-MG Clean Sheet 20%
Villa Real Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarani-MG Villa Real
Matches Played 33 26
Wins 15 11
Draws 7 4
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.33 1
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.12
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 14, 2024 Mineiro 3
Guarani-MG vs Villa Real
4:0
Sep 8, 2024 Mineiro 3
Villa Real vs Guarani-MG
1:2
Oct 8, 2023 Mineiro 3
Villa Real vs Guarani-MG
0:2
Sep 23, 2023 Mineiro 3
Guarani-MG vs Villa Real
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarani-MG 85 / 100
Villa Real 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarani-MG Villa Real

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarani-MG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guarani-MG's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Solid form: Guarani-MG remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Villa Real has conceded goals in 50% of their last 26 outings.

Scoring Trends

Guarani-MG VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarani-MG

(Home)
12 Jul
Guarani-MG
2 : 4
Boa
04 Jul
Patrocinense
0 : 1
Guarani-MG
01 Jul
Mamore
2 : 2
Guarani-MG
27 Jun
Guarani-MG
2 : 0
Caldense
23 Jun
Uberaba
2 : 1
Guarani-MG
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Villa Real

(Away)
19 Oct
Villa Real
1 : 1
Inter de Minas
14 Oct
Guarani-MG
4 : 0
Villa Real
07 Oct
Tres Coracoes
0 : 3
Villa Real
02 Oct
Villa Real
2 : 0
Pocos de Caldas
29 Sept
Tupynambas
6 : 0
Villa Real
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 America TO 6 5 1 0 8:2 16
2 Valeriodoce 6 4 0 2 6:4 12
3 Juventus Minasnovense 6 2 1 3 7:7 7
4 Boston City 6 0 0 6 4:12 0
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guarani-MG 6 5 0 1 10:2 15
2 Pocos de Caldas 6 3 1 2 6:6 10
3 Villa Real 5 1 1 3 1:4 4
4 Tres Coracoes 5 1 0 4 2:7 3
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Contagem 6 4 1 1 5:2 13
2 Coimbra Esporte Clube 6 3 2 1 13:3 11
3 Inter de Minas 6 3 1 2 8:6 10
4 Serranense 6 0 0 6 4:19 0
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mamore 8 6 2 0 16:4 20
2 Araxa 8 4 2 2 11:6 14
3 Paracatu 7 3 1 3 9:8 10
4 Nacional Uberaba 7 1 3 3 4:9 6
5 Pirapora 8 1 0 7 3:16 3
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2023 (Play Offs)