Sport Picks
Guarani vs Nacional Asuncion
Paraguay
Copa de Primera Estadio Rogelio Livieres, Asunción 
Match Events
46'
46'
Sub
Vargas S. In: Benitez G.
Out: Vargas S.
61'
61'
Sub
Lopez M. In: Llano J.
Out: Lopez M.
62'
62'
Sub
Ramirez I. In: Torales R.
Out: Ramirez I.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 0-0. This leg finished 0-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
30%
30%
40%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nacional Asuncion
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Nacional Asuncion lately — more wins on the board than Guarani.
- Win probability leans Nacional Asuncion's way, sitting at 50%.
- Nacional Asuncion arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Nacional Asuncion, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Guarani Clean Sheet 18%
Nacional Asuncion Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Guarani | Nacional Asuncion |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 13 |
| Draws | 11 | 11 |
| Losses | 9 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 0.97 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.93 | 0.86 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.81 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 9, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Guarani
0:0
May 3, 2026 Copa de Primera
Guarani vs Nacional Asuncion
0:1
Mar 1, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Guarani
1:1
Nov 14, 2025 Copa Paraguay
Guarani vs Nacional Asuncion
0:4
Sep 21, 2025 Copa de Primera
Guarani vs Nacional Asuncion
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Guarani Compare
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41
Nacional Asuncion Compare
Top Goalscorer Benitez H. A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Guarani 23 / 100
Nacional Asuncion 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Guarani Nacional Asuncion
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Nacional Asuncion Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Recent resilience: Guarani stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Guarani found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Nacional Asuncion's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.
Scoring Trends
Guarani VS Nacional Asuncion
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Guarani
(Home) 18 Sept
Sportivo Trinidense
0 : 1 Guarani
12 Sept
Guarani
1 : 1 Cerro Porteno
07 Sept
Guarani
2 : 0 Recoleta
02 Sept
Olimpia Asuncion
1 : 1 Guarani
30 Aug
Guarani
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Guarani
1 : 1 Cerro Porteno
07 Sept
Guarani
2 : 0 Recoleta
30 Aug
Guarani
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
15 Aug
Guarani
2 : 3 Rubio Nu
02 Aug
Guarani
2 : 1 Libertad Asuncion
Page 1 of 4
Nacional Asuncion
(Away) 18 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
3 : 0 2 de Mayo
13 Sept
Rubio Nu
0 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
07 Sept
Cerro Porteno
1 : 0 Nacional Asuncion
02 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
3 : 0 Libertad Asuncion
28 Aug
San Lorenzo
0 : 3 Nacional Asuncion
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Rubio Nu
0 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
07 Sept
Cerro Porteno
1 : 0 Nacional Asuncion
28 Aug
San Lorenzo
0 : 3 Nacional Asuncion
18 Aug
Benjamin Aceval
0 : 2 Nacional Asuncion
15 Aug
Sportivo Trinidense
1 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 37:17 | 49 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 31:22 | 39 |
| 3 | Cerro Porteno | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 30:22 | 38 |
| 4 | Sportivo Ameliano | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 27:21 | 33 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 30:24 | 32 |
| 6 | Libertad Asuncion | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 34:26 | 31 |
| 7 | Guarani | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 27:23 | 29 |
| 8 | Recoleta | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 35:32 | 28 |
| 9 | Rubio Nu | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 15:26 | 23 |
| 10 | 2 de Mayo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 18:35 | 22 |
| 11 | Sp. Luqueno | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 24:33 | 20 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14:41 | 15 |
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
