Sport Picks

Brazil

Paulista A4 2011

Olimpia FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Guariba play Olimpia FC in the Paulista A4 2011. Guariba are favorites here. Recently, Guariba averaged 1.7 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. Olimpia FC averaged 0.72 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. In past meetings, Guariba won 2, Olimpia FC won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 21, 2013 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for Guariba and 0.86 for Olimpia FC. This points to a Guariba double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%

Guariba

16%

Draws

24%

Olimpia FC

Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Guariba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

86% / Very High Confidence

Guariba picked up more points recently compared to Olimpia FC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 0.86 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 50%

Over 3.5 Goals 30%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%

Guariba Clean Sheet 25%

Olimpia FC Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 74%

Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Guariba	Olimpia FC
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	13	4
Draws	6	8
Losses	11	20
Goals Scored	1.7	0.72
Goals Conceded	1.57	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 21, 2013 Paulista A4

Olimpia FC vs Guariba

Possession: 46% - 52% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

May 26, 2013 Paulista A4

Guariba vs Olimpia FC

Possession: 58% - 40% Cards: 4 - 1

0:2

Jul 17, 2011 Paulista A4

Olimpia FC vs Guariba

Possession: 47% - 41% Cards: 1 - 4

1:3

May 29, 2011 Paulista A4

Guariba vs Olimpia FC

Possession: 59% - 48% Cards: 1 - 1

2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guariba 59 / 100

Olimpia FC 24 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Guariba Olimpia FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guariba Win (1)

Secondary Pick Guariba & Under 3.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +15.2%

1.92

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.5%

2.27

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Guariba attacking → ← attacking Olimpia FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guariba scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Olimpia FC let in goals in 81% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Guariba went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Olimpia FC lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 20

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.63

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Votuporanguense	12	5	5	2	17:14	20
2	Bandeirante	12	5	5	2	18:11	20
3	Fernandopolis	12	5	4	3	14:7	19
4	Tupa	12	4	5	3	12:13	17
5	Jose Bonifacio EC	12	3	5	4	13:12	14
6	Tanabi	12	2	5	5	8:13	11
7	Assisense	12	3	1	8	9:21	10

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barretos EC	12	7	5	0	25:12	26
2	Guariba	12	6	4	2	23:11	22
3	Ole Brasil	12	7	0	5	20:17	21
4	Olimpia FC	12	5	3	4	19:12	18
5	Jaboticabal Atletico	12	5	3	4	26:22	18
6	Americo EC	12	2	1	9	21:31	7
7	Matonense	12	1	2	9	7:36	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independente SP	10	8	2	0	17:3	26
2	Palmeirinha SP	10	5	4	1	17:6	19
3	Guacuano	10	5	3	2	11:7	18
4	Brasilis	10	4	2	4	16:12	14
5	Sao Judas Tadeu	10	1	1	8	9:18	4
6	Lencoense	10	1	0	9	9:33	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Desportivo	14	9	1	4	26:16	28
2	Sumare	14	7	4	3	18:13	25
3	Cotia	14	6	5	3	27:23	23
4	Capivariano	14	5	6	3	30:20	21
5	Primavera EC	14	5	5	4	17:15	20
6	SKA Brasil	14	5	3	6	18:18	18
7	Lemense	14	4	2	8	16:30	14
8	Elosport	14	1	2	11	12:29	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guarulhos	14	10	0	4	27:16	30
2	Jacarei (Inactive)	14	8	3	3	21:13	27
3	FC Primeira Camisa	14	6	6	2	25:13	24
4	ECUS SP	14	6	2	6	12:15	20
5	Uniao Suzano	14	5	4	5	21:18	19
6	Jacarei FC	14	5	3	6	14:18	18
7	Manthiqueira	14	2	4	8	10:22	10
8	Uniao Mogi	14	2	2	10	13:28	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portuguesa Santista	14	10	1	3	21:7	31
2	Sao Vicente	14	9	2	3	29:19	29
3	EC Sao Bernardo	14	8	2	4	26:14	26
4	Guaruja	14	7	2	5	19:16	23
5	Mauaense	14	6	4	4	27:17	22
6	Jabaquara	14	7	0	7	21:24	21
7	Nacional SP	14	1	2	11	16:32	5
8	Palestra	14	1	1	12	8:38	4