Sport Picks
Hamburger vs Holstein Kiel
Germany
DFB Pokal 2025/2026 Volksparkstadion, Hamburg 
Match Events
9'
9'
Davidsen K.
12'
12'
Remberg N.
12'
12'
Rosenboom L.
AI Match Summary
Holstein Kiel in this DFB Pokal 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
44%
20%
36%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Hamburger
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
36%
/ Low Confidence
- Hamburger have won more games recently than Holstein Kiel.
- 36% — that's where the model lands on Holstein Kiel taking it.
- Hamburger have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Holstein Kiel, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Hamburger Clean Sheet 15%
Holstein Kiel Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Hamburger | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 8 |
| Draws | 9 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.33 | 1.34 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.73 | 1.72 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Dec 3, 2025 DFB Pokal
Hamburger vs Holstein Kiel
1:2
Apr 20, 2024 2. Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Holstein Kiel
0:1
Nov 11, 2023 2. Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger
4:2
Mar 18, 2023 2. Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Holstein Kiel
0:0
Sep 9, 2022 2. Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Hamburger Compare
Top Goalscorer Jatta B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Holstein Kiel Compare
Top Goalscorer Harres P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Hamburger 23 / 100
Holstein Kiel 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Hamburger Holstein Kiel
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Holstein Kiel Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Holstein Kiel has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.
Hamburger scored in 77% of their last 30 games.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Hamburger remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Hamburger VS Holstein Kiel
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
2 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Hamburger
(Home) 19 Sept
Hamburger
2 : 1 1. FC Koln
13 Sept
RB Leipzig
5 : 0 Hamburger
06 Sept
Hamburger
0 : 5 Mainz
29 Aug
Dortmund
2 : 0 Hamburger
24 Aug
Verl
0 : 3 Hamburger
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Hamburger
2 : 1 1. FC Koln
06 Sept
Hamburger
0 : 5 Mainz
08 Aug
Hamburger
2 : 2 Lille
01 Aug
Hamburger
1 : 2 Everton
10 May
Hamburger
3 : 2 Freiburg
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Holstein Kiel
(Away) 19 Sept
Holstein Kiel
1 : 1 VfL Osnabruck
13 Sept
Heidenheim
1 : 0 Holstein Kiel
05 Sept
Holstein Kiel
2 : 2 Nurnberg
30 Aug
Magdeburg
2 : 0 Holstein Kiel
22 Aug
Munich 1860
0 : 2 Holstein Kiel
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Heidenheim
1 : 0 Holstein Kiel
30 Aug
Magdeburg
2 : 0 Holstein Kiel
22 Aug
Munich 1860
0 : 2 Holstein Kiel
08 Aug
Darmstadt
2 : 2 Holstein Kiel
29 Jul
Hoffenheim
3 : 1 Holstein Kiel
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Engers 0
Eintracht Frankfurt 5
RW Essen 0
Dortmund 1
FC Viktoria Koln 1
Paderborn 3
Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0
Bayer Leverkusen 4
Delmenhorst 2
B. Monchengladbach 3
Meuselwitz 0
Karlsruher 5
Eintracht Norderstedt 0
St. Pauli 1
Hansa Rostock 0
Hoffenheim 4
Gutersloh 0
Union Berlin 5
Arminia Bielefeld 1
Werder Bremen 0
Regensburg 1
1. FC Koln 2
Wehen 2
Bayern Munich 3
Energie Cottbus 1
Hannover 0
Sandhausen 2
RB Leipzig 4
Illertissen 4
Nurnberg 3
Saarbrucken 1
Magdeburg 3
Bahlinger 0
Heidenheim 5
Pirmasens 1
Hamburger 2
Hemelingen 0
Wolfsburg 9
FC 08 Homburg 0
Holstein Kiel 2
Hallescher 0
Augsburg 2
BFC Dynamo 1
Bochum 3
Dresden 0
Mainz 1
Braunschweig 4
VfB Stuttgart 5
Preussen Munster 0
Hertha Berlin 1
Ulm 0
Elversberg 1
Lohne 0
Greuther Furth 2
Rsv Eintracht 0
Kaiserslautern 7
1. FC Schweinfurt 2
Dusseldorf 4
Lotte 0
Freiburg 2
Lubeck 1
Darmstadt 2
Lokomotive Leipzig 0
Schalke 1
1/16-finals
Eintracht Frankfurt 1
Dortmund 2
Paderborn 2
Bayer Leverkusen 4
B. Monchengladbach 3
Karlsruher 1
St. Pauli 3
Hoffenheim 2
Union Berlin 2
Arminia Bielefeld 1
1. FC Koln 1
Bayern Munich 4
Energie Cottbus 1
RB Leipzig 4
Illertissen 0
Magdeburg 3
Heidenheim 0
Hamburger 1
Wolfsburg 0
Holstein Kiel 1
Augsburg 0
Bochum 1
Mainz 0
VfB Stuttgart 2
Hertha Berlin 3
Elversberg 0
Greuther Furth 0
Kaiserslautern 1
Dusseldorf 1
Freiburg 3
Darmstadt 4
Schalke 0
1/8-finals
Dortmund 0
Bayer Leverkusen 1
B. Monchengladbach 1
St. Pauli 2
Union Berlin 2
Bayern Munich 3
RB Leipzig 3
Magdeburg 1
Hamburger 1
Holstein Kiel 2
Bochum 0
VfB Stuttgart 2
Hertha Berlin 6
Kaiserslautern 1
Freiburg 2
Darmstadt 0
Quarter-finals
Bayer Leverkusen 3
St. Pauli 0
Bayern Munich 2
RB Leipzig 0
Holstein Kiel 0
VfB Stuttgart 3
Hertha Berlin 1
Freiburg 2
Semi-finals
Bayer Leverkusen 0
Bayern Munich 2
VfB Stuttgart 2
Freiburg 1
Final
Bayern Munich 3
VfB Stuttgart 0
