Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hamburger vs Mainz

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Becker S.
Assist: Sano K.
31'
Caci A.
36'
El Ouahdi Z.

AI Match Summary

The Bundesliga game between Hamburger and Mainz finished 0-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mainz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Hamburger
20%
Draws
52%
Mainz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mainz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Hamburger haven't matched Mainz's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Mainz a 52% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Bundesliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Hamburger Clean Sheet 10%
Mainz Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hamburger Mainz
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 8 19
Draws 9 7
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.34 2.59
Goals Conceded 1.72 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 3.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Mainz
0:5
Feb 20, 2026 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Hamburger
1:1
Oct 5, 2025 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Mainz
4:0
Mar 3, 2018 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Mainz
0:0
Oct 14, 2017 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Hamburger
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hamburger Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Mainz Compare

Top Goalscorer Tietz P.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Becker S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 3.07
Avg xA / game 1.88

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hamburger 10 / 100
Mainz 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hamburger Mainz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mainz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Hamburger's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Hamburger stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Mainz has conceded goals in 56% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

Hamburger VS Mainz
1.63 Goals Scored 4.75
2 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Hamburger

(Home)
06 Sept
Hamburger
0 : 5
Mainz
29 Aug
Dortmund
2 : 0
Hamburger
24 Aug
Verl
0 : 3
Hamburger
15 Aug
Toulouse
1 : 2
Hamburger
08 Aug
Hamburger
2 : 2
Lille
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Mainz

(Away)
06 Sept
Hamburger
0 : 5
Mainz
29 Aug
Mainz
0 : 0
Paderborn
23 Aug
Krieschow
0 : 9
Mainz
15 Aug
Mainz
2 : 1
Bournemouth
08 Aug
Mainz
4 : 0
Paris FC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Augsburg 2 2 0 0 7:1 6
2 Freiburg 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
3 Dortmund 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
4 Elversberg 2 2 0 0 7:5 6
5 Mainz 2 1 1 0 5:0 4
6 Bayern Munich 2 1 1 0 5:1 4
7 Bayer Leverkusen 2 1 0 1 6:3 3
8 RB Leipzig 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
9 VfB Stuttgart 2 1 0 1 5:6 3
10 Werder Bremen 2 1 0 1 4:5 3
11 1. FC Koln 2 1 0 1 4:6 3
12 Paderborn 2 0 1 1 0:1 1
13 Eintracht Frankfurt 2 0 1 1 4:7 1
14 Schalke 2 0 1 1 0:3 1
15 Union Berlin 2 0 1 1 3:7 1
16 Hoffenheim 2 0 0 2 4:6 0
17 B. Monchengladbach 2 0 0 2 3:7 0
18 Hamburger 2 0 0 2 0:7 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)