Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hamburger vs Mainz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Becker S.
Assist: Sano K.
31'
Caci A.
36'
El Ouahdi Z.

AI Match Summary

The Bundesliga game between Hamburger and Mainz finished 0-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mainz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Hamburger
15%
Draws
28%
Mainz
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hamburger

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Hamburger haven't matched Mainz's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Hamburger a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Bundesliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Hamburger Clean Sheet 68%
Mainz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hamburger Mainz
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 17
Draws 5 4
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.34 2.77
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Mainz
0:5
Feb 20, 2026 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Hamburger
1:1
Oct 5, 2025 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Mainz
4:0
Mar 3, 2018 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Mainz
0:0
Oct 14, 2017 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Hamburger
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hamburger Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Mainz Compare

Top Goalscorer Tietz P.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Becker S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hamburger 59 / 100
Mainz 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hamburger Mainz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hamburger Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 6:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Hamburger's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Mainz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Difficult form: Mainz registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hamburger VS Mainz
1 Goals Scored 2.38
2 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Hamburger

(Home)
01 Nov
Eintracht Frankfurt
3 : 1
Hamburger
27 Oct
Hamburger
1 : 3
Eintracht Frankfurt
24 Oct
Paderborn
1 : 0
Hamburger
17 Oct
Hamburger
1 : 0
VfB Stuttgart
10 Oct
Hoffenheim
2 : 3
Hamburger
Page 1 of 6

Mainz

(Away)
30 Oct
Elversberg
4 : 1
Mainz
27 Oct
Bochum
2 : 0
Mainz
24 Oct
Mainz
2 : 3
Werder Bremen
17 Oct
Schalke
0 : 1
Mainz
10 Oct
Mainz
3 : 4
Bayer Leverkusen
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 8 5 3 0 27:8 18
2 Dortmund 8 5 3 0 14:6 18
3 Freiburg 8 5 1 2 18:10 16
4 RB Leipzig 8 5 0 3 22:11 15
5 Werder Bremen 8 4 3 1 17:14 15
6 Bayer Leverkusen 8 4 1 3 18:16 13
7 Elversberg 8 4 1 3 16:16 13
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 8 3 2 3 13:18 11
9 Mainz 8 3 1 4 17:17 10
10 Augsburg 8 2 3 3 18:15 9
11 VfB Stuttgart 8 3 0 5 14:15 9
12 Hoffenheim 8 3 0 5 14:16 9
13 1. FC Koln 8 2 3 3 9:12 9
14 Paderborn 8 2 3 3 6:9 9
15 Hamburger 8 3 0 5 7:19 9
16 Union Berlin 8 1 4 3 7:19 7
17 Schalke 8 1 3 4 4:9 6
18 B. Monchengladbach 8 1 1 6 11:22 4
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)