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Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Prediction & H2H Stats

Austria Austria

Bundesliga 2025/2026 Stadion Hartberg, Hartberg
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Vallci A.
Assist: Gazibegovic J.
9' Event
Pazourek L.
Assist: Kainz T.
14' Event
Markus B.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Bundesliga 2025/2026 game between Hartberg and Sturm Graz finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sturm Graz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Hartberg
30%
Draws
33%
Sturm Graz
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Hartberg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Sturm Graz carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Hartberg a 37% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Sturm Graz have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Hartberg Clean Sheet 16%
Sturm Graz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hartberg Sturm Graz
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 11 16
Draws 7 9
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 1.68 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.36 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Bundesliga
Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
0:2
May 10, 2026 Bundesliga
Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
2:4
Apr 12, 2026 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs Hartberg
0:0
Nov 30, 2025 Bundesliga
Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
0:1
Sep 28, 2025 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs Hartberg
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hartberg Compare

Top Goalscorer Pazourek L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Sturm Graz Compare

Top Goalscorer Vallci A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kiteishvili O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hartberg 84 / 100
Sturm Graz 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hartberg Sturm Graz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hartberg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Hartberg remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Hartberg's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Sturm Graz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Hartberg VS Sturm Graz
2.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Hartberg

(Home)
24 Sept
Hartberg
5 : 0
Kapfenberg
20 Sept
Hartberg
3 : 3
LASK Linz
13 Sept
Tirol
2 : 2
Hartberg
06 Sept
Vorwarts Steyr
0 : 4
Hartberg
30 Aug
Hartberg
3 : 2
Ried
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Sturm Graz

(Away)
02 Oct
Sturm Graz
3 : 1
Floridsdorfer AC Wien
20 Sept
Salzburg
3 : 0
Sturm Graz
16 Sept
Sturm Graz
0 : 0
Rennes
13 Sept
Sturm Graz
2 : 1
LASK Linz
05 Sept
ASK Voitsberg
1 : 4
Sturm Graz
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 LASK Linz 32 17 7 8 56:42 39
2 Sturm Graz 32 16 8 8 51:35 37
3 Salzburg 32 13 9 10 56:41 29
4 Austria Vienna 32 14 5 13 45:50 29
5 Rapid Vienna 32 12 8 12 36:41 27
6 Hartberg 32 10 12 10 40:40 25
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)