Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Heidenheim vs St. Pauli

Germany Germany

Bundesliga 2025/2026 Voith-Arena, Heidenheim
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Zivzivadze B.
Assist: Schoppner J.
46'
Sub
Fujita J. In: Kaars M.
Out: Fujita J.
46'
Sub
Rasmussen M. In: Smith E.
Out: Rasmussen M.

AI Match Summary

The Bundesliga 2025/2026 game between Heidenheim and St. Pauli finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Heidenheim.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Heidenheim
6%
Draws
4%
St. Pauli
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Heidenheim

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Heidenheim's 2.88 goals per match outpaces what St. Pauli have produced (1.63).
  • Heidenheim are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Heidenheim Clean Sheet 68%
St. Pauli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heidenheim St. Pauli
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 8
Draws 6 8
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 2.88 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.25 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Bundesliga
Heidenheim vs St. Pauli
2:0
Dec 13, 2025 Bundesliga
St. Pauli vs Heidenheim
2:1
Jan 18, 2025 Bundesliga
Heidenheim vs St. Pauli
0:2
Aug 25, 2024 Bundesliga
St. Pauli vs Heidenheim
0:2
Apr 8, 2023 2. Bundesliga
Heidenheim vs St. Pauli
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heidenheim Compare

Top Goalscorer Zivzivadze B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dinkci E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

St. Pauli Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heidenheim 95 / 100
St. Pauli 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heidenheim St. Pauli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HEI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: St. Pauli conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

Heidenheim's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Heidenheim went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Heidenheim VS St. Pauli
2.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Heidenheim

(Home)
15 Jul
Nordlingen
0 : 9
Heidenheim
11 Jul
TSV Langenau
0 : 12
Heidenheim
10 Jul
Heidenheim
0 : 1
Lugano
04 Jul
Altach
1 : 2
Heidenheim
16 May
Heidenheim
0 : 2
Mainz
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St. Pauli

(Away)
11 Jul
Babelsberg
1 : 4
St. Pauli
04 Jul
Emden
1 : 3
St. Pauli
30 Jun
Altona
2 : 6
St. Pauli
16 May
St. Pauli
1 : 3
Wolfsburg
09 May
RB Leipzig
2 : 1
St. Pauli
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bayern Munich342851122:3689
2Dortmund34227570:3473
3RB Leipzig34205966:4765
4VfB Stuttgart34188871:4962
5Hoffenheim34187965:5261
6Bayer Leverkusen34178968:4759
7Freiburg341381351:5747
8Eintracht Frankfurt3411111261:6544
9Augsburg341271545:6143
10Mainz3410101444:5340
11Union Berlin341091544:5839
12B. Monchengladbach349111442:5338
13Hamburger349111440:5438
141. FC Koln347111649:6332
15Werder Bremen34881837:6032
16Wolfsburg34781945:6929
17Heidenheim34682041:7226
18St. Pauli34682029:6026
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga (Main)