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Heraclea vs Barletta

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Mateus da Silva
27' Event
Mateus da Silva
51' Event
Musy M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 game between Heraclea and Barletta finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Barletta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Heraclea
35%
Draws
39%
Barletta
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Barletta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Barletta come out ahead of Heraclea on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Heraclea Clean Sheet 11%
Barletta Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heraclea Barletta
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 17
Draws 8 9
Losses 14 4
Goals Scored 0.93 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.77
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Heraclea vs Barletta
1:3
Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Barletta vs Heraclea
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heraclea Compare

Top Goalscorer Musy M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Barletta Compare

Top Goalscorer Mateus da Silva
2 Goals
Assists Leader Di Cuonzo M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.61
Avg xA / game 0.98

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heraclea 30 / 100
Barletta 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heraclea Barletta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Barletta Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Heraclea scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Barletta's defensive record shows goals conceded in 47% of 30 matches.

Heraclea has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Heraclea VS Barletta
1.2 Goals Scored 1.75
1.8 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
80% Over 2.5 63%
20% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Heraclea

(Home)
10 May
SS Nola 1925
1 : 1
Heraclea
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
Heraclea
19 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 3
Barletta
12 Apr
Pompei
2 : 1
Heraclea
Page 1 of 6

Barletta

(Away)
19 Sept
Catania
0 : 0
Barletta
15 Sept
Barletta
1 : 1
Salernitana
11 Sept
Casarano
3 : 1
Barletta
05 Sept
Crotone
2 : 2
Barletta
28 Aug
Barletta
3 : 0
Bari
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)