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Heraclea vs Barletta

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Mateus Castro
27' Event
Mateus Castro
51' Event
Musy M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H game between Heraclea and Barletta finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Barletta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Heraclea
33%
Draws
40%
Barletta
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Barletta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Barletta come out ahead of Heraclea on wins alone.
  • Model gives Barletta a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Heraclea Clean Sheet 11%
Barletta Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heraclea Barletta
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 19
Draws 8 8
Losses 14 3
Goals Scored 1.13 2
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Heraclea vs Barletta
1:3
Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Barletta vs Heraclea
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heraclea Compare

Top Goalscorer Musy M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Barletta Compare

Top Goalscorer Mateus Castro
2 Goals
Assists Leader Di Cuonzo M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heraclea 27 / 100
Barletta 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heraclea Barletta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Heraclea scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Barletta's defensive record shows goals conceded in 37% of 30 matches.

Heraclea has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Heraclea VS Barletta
1.13 Goals Scored 2
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Heraclea

(Home)
10 May
SS Nola 1925
1 : 1
Heraclea
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
Heraclea
19 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 3
Barletta
12 Apr
Pompei
2 : 1
Heraclea
Page 1 of 6

Barletta

(Away)
30 May
Vado
2 : 0
Barletta
24 May
Barletta
2 : 1
Vado
17 May
Scafatese
1 : 1
Barletta
10 May
Barletta
2 : 1
A.C. Savoia
03 May
A.C.D. Nardo
1 : 0
Barletta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barletta342010454:2070
2Martina Calcio34188847:3062
3Citta di Fasano34188851:3562
4Paganese341771036:3258
5A.C.D. Nardo341413740:2755
6Gravina341671150:4055
7Afragolese3413101145:4649
8Fidelis Andria341391235:2848
9Virtus Francavilla3412121045:4048
10Real Normanna3410131127:2643
11Francavilla3411101339:3843
12Manfredonia3411101334:3943
13Sarnese349141151:4941
14SS Nola 1925341181542:5041
15Heraclea341081631:3938
16Pompei34971826:3834
17Ferrandina34791821:4330
18Acerrana34352620:7414
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)