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Ilicitano vs UCAM Murcia

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 3
Sat, Oct 3, 2026
VS
02:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ilicitano host UCAM Murcia in the Segunda RFEF - Group 3. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Ilicitano have averaged 1.54 scored and 1.5 conceded recently, against UCAM Murcia's 1.76 scored and 1.31 conceded. Past meetings favor UCAM Murcia slightly — 0-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 3, 2024, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 1.94, favoring UCAM Murcia. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Ilicitano
20%
Draws
40%
UCAM Murcia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and UCAM Murcia come out ahead of Ilicitano on wins alone.
  • Model gives UCAM Murcia a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Ilicitano Clean Sheet 10%
UCAM Murcia Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ilicitano UCAM Murcia
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 15
Draws 7 4
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.54 1.76
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 3, 2024 Club Friendly
UCAM Murcia vs Ilicitano
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ilicitano 18 / 100
UCAM Murcia 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ilicitano UCAM Murcia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UCAM Murcia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ilicitano scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: UCAM Murcia conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Ilicitano stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Ilicitano VS UCAM Murcia
0.88 Goals Scored 2
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ilicitano

(Home)
20 Sept
Ilicitano
1 : 0
Pena Deportiva
13 Sept
Ciudad Cieza
1 : 0
Ilicitano
06 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
1 : 1
Ilicitano
22 Aug
Albacete B
0 : 1
Ilicitano
19 Aug
Ilicitano
2 : 0
FC Cartagena SAD
Page 1 of 6

UCAM Murcia

(Away)
20 Sept
Baleares
1 : 4
UCAM Murcia
13 Sept
UCAM Murcia
1 : 0
Valencia B
05 Sept
Castellonense
2 : 1
UCAM Murcia
08 Aug
UCAM Murcia
7 : 2
Orihuela
01 Aug
UCAM Murcia
1 : 1
Hercules
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Nucia 3 3 0 0 7:1 9
2 Castellonense 3 3 0 0 5:2 9
3 Orihuela 3 2 1 0 5:3 7
4 UCAM Murcia 3 2 0 1 6:3 6
5 Castellon B 3 2 0 1 6:3 6
6 CF Intercity 3 1 2 0 4:3 5
7 Deportiva Minera 3 1 2 0 3:2 5
8 Mallorca B 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
9 Yeclano 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
10 Ciudad Cieza 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
11 Ilicitano 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
12 Alcoyano 3 1 1 1 3:4 4
13 Lorca Deportiva 3 0 2 1 1:2 2
14 Valencia B 3 0 1 2 2:4 1
15 Pena Deportiva 3 0 1 2 1:3 1
16 Baleares 3 0 1 2 3:7 1
17 UD Poblense 3 0 0 3 1:5 0
18 Real Murcia B 3 0 0 3 2:8 0
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Play Out)