Sport Picks
Irapuato vs Club Atletico Morelia
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Sergio León Chavez, Irapuato 
Match Events
22'
22'
Moreno G.
25'
25'
Figueroa B.
Assist: Dominguez M.
30'
30'
Parra D.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
42%
20%
38%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Irapuato
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
67%
/ Medium Confidence
- Irapuato haven't matched Club Atletico Morelia's recent run of results.
- Irapuato are the model's pick here, at 42%.
- Club Atletico Morelia arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Club Atletico Morelia, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Irapuato Clean Sheet 20%
Club Atletico Morelia Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Irapuato | Club Atletico Morelia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 12 |
| Draws | 11 | 8 |
| Losses | 9 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.43 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.43 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 29, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Irapuato
2:0
Nov 23, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Irapuato vs Club Atletico Morelia
1:1
Nov 20, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Irapuato
0:0
Oct 19, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Irapuato vs Club Atletico Morelia
0:3
Jan 16, 2004 Liga MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Irapuato
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Irapuato Compare
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1
Club Atletico Morelia Compare
Top Goalscorer Figueroa B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Irapuato 42 / 100
Club Atletico Morelia 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Irapuato Club Atletico Morelia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Irapuato's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Irapuato remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Defensive concern: Club Atletico Morelia conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Irapuato VS Club Atletico Morelia
2 Goals Scored 1
1.43 Goals Conceded 1.13
86% Over 1.5 63%
71% Over 2.5 38%
43% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Irapuato
(Home) 19 Apr
Irapuato
0 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
11 Apr
Tapatio
1 : 2 Irapuato
04 Apr
Irapuato
3 : 1 Atletico La Paz
29 Mar
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Irapuato
21 Mar
Irapuato
2 : 2 Cancun
Page 1 of 6
19 Apr
Irapuato
0 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
04 Apr
Irapuato
3 : 1 Atletico La Paz
21 Mar
Irapuato
2 : 2 Cancun
08 Mar
Irapuato
6 : 2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
26 Feb
Irapuato
0 : 5 Atlante
Page 1 of 3
Club Atletico Morelia
(Away) 26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2 Atletico La Paz
05 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
3 : 3 Cruz Azul
20 Jun
Necaxa
1 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
26 Apr
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
23 Apr
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 6
20 Jun
Necaxa
1 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
23 Apr
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
19 Apr
Jaiba Brava
1 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
05 Apr
Leones Negros
2 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
22 Mar
Tapatio
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
Quarter-finals
Jaiba Brava4
Leones Negros2
Atlante1
Tepatitlan de Morelos2
Irapuato3
Zacatecas Mineros3
Cancun2
Club Atletico Morelia4
Semi-finals
Jaiba Brava2
Tepatitlan de Morelos0
Irapuato1
Club Atletico Morelia1
Final
Jaiba Brava1
Irapuato0
