Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Istra 1961 vs Sibenik

Croatia Croatia

HNL 2024/2025 Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Rozic V.
Assist: Radosevic J.
4' Event
Rozic V.
32'
Santini I.

AI Match Summary

The HNL 2024/2025 game between Istra 1961 and Sibenik finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Istra 1961.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Istra 1961
20%
Draws
34%
Sibenik
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Istra 1961

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Istra 1961 come out ahead of Sibenik on wins alone.
  • Model gives Istra 1961 a 46% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Istra 1961 Clean Sheet 68%
Sibenik Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Istra 1961 Sibenik
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 11 7
Draws 9 6
Losses 13 17
Goals Scored 1.58 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2025 HNL
Istra 1961 vs Sibenik
3:0
Mar 15, 2025 HNL
Sibenik vs Istra 1961
1:0
Dec 14, 2024 HNL
Istra 1961 vs Sibenik
3:3
Sep 27, 2024 HNL
Sibenik vs Istra 1961
0:0
Apr 29, 2023 HNL
Istra 1961 vs Sibenik
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Istra 1961 Compare

Top Goalscorer Rozic V.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Loncar S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Sibenik Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Istra 1961 86 / 100
Sibenik 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Istra 1961 Sibenik

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Istra 1961 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sibenik's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Istra 1961 scored in 67% of their last 33 games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Istra 1961 stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Istra 1961 VS -
1.5 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Istra 1961

(Home)
19 Sept
Istra 1961
0 : 1
HNK Gorica
13 Sept
Istra 1961
3 : 2
Rudes
08 Sept
Zagorec Krapina
0 : 5
Istra 1961
04 Sept
Varazdin
0 : 0
Istra 1961
29 Aug
Istra 1961
2 : 2
Din. Zagreb
Page 1 of 7

Sibenik

(Away)
10 Sept
Varteks Varazdin (2011)
4 : 1
Sibenik
23 Aug
Sibenik
4 : 1
Hrvatski Vitez Posedarje
16 Aug
Sloga Mravince
2 : 1
Sibenik
13 Aug
Sibenik
1 : 0
Drnis
09 Aug
Sibenik
1 : 2
Vodice
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rijeka 36 18 11 7 49:21 65
2 Din. Zagreb 36 19 8 9 69:41 65
3 Hajduk Split 36 17 12 7 49:34 63
4 Varazdin 36 11 16 9 28:24 49
5 Slaven Belupo 36 13 9 14 42:45 48
6 Istra 1961 36 11 15 10 39:42 48
7 Osijek 36 11 9 16 46:52 42
8 Lok. Zagreb 36 10 9 17 45:54 39
9 HNK Gorica 36 9 10 17 29:51 37
10 Sibenik 36 7 9 20 28:60 30
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2025/2026 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2025/2026 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL 2025/2026 (Main)