Sport Picks

Brazil

Serie D 2025 Estadio Municipal Castor Cifuentes, Nova Lima

Itabirito

1 - 2

Monte Azul

Our Tip

Match Events

58'

Victor Sallinas

68'

Pingo

81'

Farrapo Y.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Monte Azul in this Serie D 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Monte Azul.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%

Itabirito

15%

Draws

12%

Monte Azul

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Itabirito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence

Form's been kind to Monte Azul lately — more wins on the board than Itabirito.
73% — that's where the model lands on Itabirito taking it.
Regular Serie D 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 74.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%

Itabirito Clean Sheet 68%

Monte Azul Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Itabirito	Monte Azul
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	5	8
Draws	10	10
Losses	15	13
Goals Scored	0.93	1.06
Goals Conceded	1.67	1.26
Expected Goals (xG)	1.40	1.65
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2025 Serie D

Itabirito vs Monte Azul

1:2

Apr 19, 2025 Serie D

Monte Azul vs Itabirito

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itabirito Compare

Top Goalscorer Victor Sallinas

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.08

Avg xA / game 0.7

Monte Azul Compare

Top Goalscorer Pingo

1 Goals

Assists Leader Farrapo Y.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.5

Avg xA / game 0.92

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itabirito 50 / 100

Monte Azul 26 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Itabirito Monte Azul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Itabirito Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Itabirito found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Monte Azul let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Monte Azul lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Itabirito VS Monte Azul

1.43 Goals Scored 1

2.29 Goals Conceded 1.38

86% Over 1.5 63%

57% Over 2.5 25%

43% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Itabirito

(Home)

14 Feb

Itabirito

2 : 7

Atletico-MG

06 Feb

Betim FC

0 : 2

Itabirito

01 Feb

Itabirito

2 : 3

Tombense

24 Jan

URT

2 : 1

Itabirito

21 Jan

Uberlandia

0 : 1

Itabirito

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Monte Azul

(Away)

07 Mar

Ituano

3 : 3

Monte Azul

04 Mar

Monte Azul

0 : 2

Sertaozinho

01 Mar

Monte Azul

0 : 1

Agua Santa

25 Feb

Monte Azul

1 : 3

Juventus-SP

22 Feb

Ferroviaria

1 : 0

Monte Azul

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