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Stadium Background

Itaqua vs Mauaense

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Gustavo Entringer

AI Match Summary

The Paulista B game between Itaqua and Mauaense finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Itaqua.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Itaqua
20%
Draws
23%
Mauaense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Itaqua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Itaqua come out ahead of Mauaense on wins alone.
  • Model gives Itaqua a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Itaqua Clean Sheet 20%
Mauaense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itaqua Mauaense
Matches Played 16 34
Wins 12 8
Draws 2 14
Losses 2 12
Goals Scored 2.06 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Paulista B
Mauaense vs Itaqua
1:2
Apr 19, 2026 Paulista B
Itaqua vs Mauaense
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itaqua Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Entringer
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Mauaense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itaqua 85 / 100
Mauaense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itaqua Mauaense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Itaqua Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Itaqua scored in 94% of their last 16 outings.

Mauaense has conceded goals in 68% of their last 34 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Itaqua has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Itaqua VS Mauaense
2.25 Goals Scored 1.14
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.14
88% Over 1.5 71%
50% Over 2.5 43%
25% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Itaqua

(Home)
02 Aug
Itaqua
0 : 3
America SP
26 Jul
America SP
1 : 1
Itaqua
18 Jul
Itaqua
1 : 0
Uniao Mogi
11 Jul
Uniao Mogi
1 : 4
Itaqua
04 Jul
Itaqua
3 : 0
Paulinia FU
Page 1 of 4

Mauaense

(Away)
20 Jun
Manthiqueira
2 : 1
Mauaense
13 Jun
Mauaense
0 : 1
Uniao Mogi
06 Jun
Barcelona SP
0 : 2
Mauaense
30 May
Maua FC
1 : 1
Mauaense
23 May
Mauaense
1 : 2
Itaqua
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Jose Bonifacio EC 10 6 4 0 17:6 22
2 America SP 10 5 4 1 13:7 19
3 Assisense 10 3 5 2 17:15 14
4 Tupa 10 4 1 5 14:16 13
5 Riopretano 10 1 4 5 9:16 7
6 Santa Fe SP 10 2 0 8 10:20 6
Promotion - Paulista B (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independente SP 10 8 0 2 37:7 24
2 Matonense 10 7 1 2 28:10 22
3 Sao Carlos 10 4 3 3 19:11 15
4 Santacruzense 10 4 2 4 19:13 14
5 Mogi Mirim 10 4 0 6 15:15 12
6 Catanduvense 10 0 0 10 4:66 0
Promotion - Paulista B (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo SP 10 7 2 1 13:6 23
2 Paulinense 10 5 0 5 9:16 15
3 Audax-SP 10 5 1 4 15:9 13
4 Paulinia FU 10 3 1 6 11:14 10
5 Votoraty SP 10 2 1 7 12:19 7
6 Guarulhos 10 5 1 4 19:15 4
Promotion - Paulista B (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Itaqua 10 8 1 1 21:6 25
2 Maua FC 10 4 4 2 20:15 16
3 Uniao Mogi 10 5 2 3 14:13 14
4 Manthiqueira 10 4 2 4 17:17 14
5 Mauaense 10 3 3 4 10:10 12
6 Barcelona SP 10 0 0 10 5:26 0
Promotion - Paulista B (Play Offs)