Sport Picks
Jaiba Brava vs Atletico La Paz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Tamaulipas, Tampico-Ciudad Madero 
Match Events
16'
16'
Lopez D.
Assist: Cruz C.
36'
36'
Jaimes U.
Assist: Garcia M.
41'
41'
Del Aguila Y.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX game between Jaiba Brava and Atletico La Paz finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico La Paz.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
19%
30%
51%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Atletico La Paz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Atletico La Paz come out ahead of Jaiba Brava on wins alone.
- Model gives Atletico La Paz a 51% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Jaiba Brava Clean Sheet 10%
Atletico La Paz Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Jaiba Brava | Atletico La Paz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 31 |
| Wins | 11 | 15 |
| Draws | 8 | 10 |
| Losses | 12 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.35 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 2.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 25, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Atletico La Paz
1:3
Apr 26, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Jaiba Brava
1:2
Apr 23, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Atletico La Paz
2:0
Mar 28, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Jaiba Brava
1:1
Oct 19, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Atletico La Paz
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Jaiba Brava Compare
Top Goalscorer Lopez D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Atletico La Paz Compare
Top Goalscorer Jaimes U.
1 Goals Assists Leader Barragan M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Jaiba Brava 10 / 100
Atletico La Paz 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Jaiba Brava Atletico La Paz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Atletico La Paz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
Jaiba Brava found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (31 games).
Atletico La Paz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 31 matches.
Jaiba Brava has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Jaiba Brava VS Atletico La Paz
1.25 Goals Scored 2.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Jaiba Brava
(Home) 01 Nov
Cancun
2 : 0 Jaiba Brava
25 Oct
Jaiba Brava
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
18 Oct
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 2 Jaiba Brava
11 Oct
Jaiba Brava
0 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
03 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
Page 1 of 7
25 Oct
Jaiba Brava
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
11 Oct
Jaiba Brava
0 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
20 Sept
Jaiba Brava
1 : 1 Dorados de Sinaloa
06 Sept
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Venados FC
23 Aug
Jaiba Brava
2 : 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 4
Atletico La Paz
(Away) 12 Nov
Piratas
1 : 1 Atletico La Paz
08 Nov
Atletico La Paz
3 : 3 Tlaxcala
05 Nov
Tlaxcala
0 : 1 Atletico La Paz
31 Oct
Atletico La Paz
3 : 0 Dorados de Sinaloa
25 Oct
Jaiba Brava
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 7
12 Nov
Piratas
1 : 1 Atletico La Paz
05 Nov
Tlaxcala
0 : 1 Atletico La Paz
25 Oct
Jaiba Brava
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
09 Oct
Tapatio
2 : 4 Atletico La Paz
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico La Paz | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 36:18 | 30 |
| 2 | Leones Negros | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 34:20 | 30 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 | Piratas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 27:15 | 25 |
| 5 | Cancun | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28:18 | 25 |
| 6 | Venados FC | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 31:25 | 25 |
| 7 | Alacranes de Durango | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21:15 | 24 |
| 8 | Tlaxcala | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 29:27 | 22 |
| 9 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 15:25 | 22 |
| 10 | Zacatecas Mineros | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 26:26 | 18 |
| 11 | Tapatio | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 25:28 | 18 |
| 12 | Correcaminos | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 21:24 | 17 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 23:32 | 16 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15:25 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 17:24 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 15 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 11:44 | 7 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
