Sport Picks
Jaiba Brava vs Club Atletico Morelia
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Tamaulipas, Tampico-Ciudad Madero 
Match Events
54'
54'
Sub
Martinez J. In: Ochoa Brandon
Out: Martinez J.
60'
60'
Magana D.
Assist: Razo L.
68'
68'
Sub
del Campo R. In: Nambo M.
Out: del Campo R.
AI Match Summary
Jaiba Brava in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jaiba Brava.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
39%
30%
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ Medium Confidence
- Club Atletico Morelia haven't matched Jaiba Brava's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Jaiba Brava Clean Sheet 25%
Club Atletico Morelia Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Jaiba Brava | Club Atletico Morelia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 34 | 32 |
| Wins | 16 | 13 |
| Draws | 10 | 9 |
| Losses | 8 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.63 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.63 | 1.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 19, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Club Atletico Morelia
1:0
Nov 9, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Jaiba Brava
0:0
Jan 11, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Jaiba Brava
1:0
Jul 28, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Club Atletico Morelia
1:1
Mar 20, 2022 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Jaiba Brava
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Jaiba Brava Compare
Top Goalscorer Magana D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Club Atletico Morelia Compare
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Jaiba Brava 33 / 100
Club Atletico Morelia 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Jaiba Brava Club Atletico Morelia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick ATL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Jaiba Brava scored in 71% of their last 34 games.
Club Atletico Morelia let in goals in 63% of their last 32 matches.
Games between these two average 1.40 goals.
Jaiba Brava has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Jaiba Brava VS Club Atletico Morelia
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Jaiba Brava
(Home) 26 Jul
Jaiba Brava
0 : 0 Piratas
05 Jul
Jaiba Brava
0 : 2 Club America
31 May
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Tepatitlan de Morelos
24 May
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
17 May
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 0 Jaiba Brava
Page 1 of 7
26 Jul
Jaiba Brava
0 : 0 Piratas
05 Jul
Jaiba Brava
0 : 2 Club America
31 May
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Tepatitlan de Morelos
10 May
Jaiba Brava
0 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
01 May
Jaiba Brava
2 : 1 Cancun
Page 1 of 4
Club Atletico Morelia
(Away) 26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2 Atletico La Paz
05 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
3 : 3 Cruz Azul
20 Jun
Necaxa
1 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
26 Apr
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
23 Apr
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 7
20 Jun
Necaxa
1 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
23 Apr
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
19 Apr
Jaiba Brava
1 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
05 Apr
Leones Negros
2 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
22 Mar
Tapatio
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
