Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Japan U23 vs Nepal U23

Asia Asia

Asian Games 2018
Japan U23 Logo

Japan U23

1 - 0
FT
Nepal U23 Logo

Nepal U23

Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Mitoma K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Asian Games 2018 game between Japan U23 and Nepal U23 finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Japan U23.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Japan U23
15%
Draws
0%
Nepal U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Japan U23 come out ahead of Nepal U23 on wins alone.
  • Japan U23 are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Asian Games 2018 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Japan U23 Clean Sheet 68%
Nepal U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan U23 Nepal U23
Matches Played 32 27
Wins 26 4
Draws 3 1
Losses 3 22
Goals Scored 2.47 0.48
Goals Conceded 0.56 3
Expected Goals (xG) 3.56 0.65
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2018 Asian Games
Japan U23 vs Nepal U23
1:0
Sep 21, 2014 Asian Games
Nepal U23 vs Japan U23
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Mitoma K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.74
Avg xA / game 1.78

Nepal U23 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.59
Avg xA / game 0.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan U23 95 / 100
Nepal U23 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan U23 Nepal U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Japan U23's goal record stands at 94% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Defensive concern: Nepal U23 conceded in 93% of 27 recent games.

Recent resilience: Japan U23 stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Nepal U23 has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Japan U23 VS Nepal U23
3.13 Goals Scored 0.67
0.63 Goals Conceded 4
100% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan U23

(Home)
23 Sept
Japan U23
3 : 0
Thailand U23
20 Sept
Kyrgyzstan U23
0 : 7
Japan U23
16 Sept
Japan U23
2 : 0
Hong Kong U23
24 Jan
China U23
0 : 4
Japan U23
20 Jan
Japan U23
1 : 0
South Korea U23
Page 1 of 7

Nepal U23

(Away)
09 Sept
Philippines U23
4 : 0
Nepal U23
06 Sept
Nepal U23
2 : 4
Syria U23
03 Sept
Tajikistan U23
4 : 0
Nepal U23
31 Oct
Lebanon U23
4 : 0
Nepal U23
28 Oct
Nepal U23
0 : 6
Tajikistan U23
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Indonesia U23 4 3 0 1 11:3 9
2 Palestine U23 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
3 Hong Kong U23 4 2 1 1 9:5 7
4 Laos U23 4 1 0 3 4:8 3
5 Chinese Taipei U23 4 0 1 3 0:10 1
Promotion - Asian Games 2018 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Asian Games 2018 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uzbekistan U23 3 3 0 0 10:0 9
2 Bangladesh U23 3 1 1 1 2:4 4
3 Thailand U23 3 0 2 1 2:3 2
4 Qatar U23 3 0 1 2 1:8 1
Promotion - Asian Games 2018 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Asian Games 2018 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 China U23 3 3 0 0 11:1 9
2 Syria U23 3 2 0 1 6:5 6
3 United Arab Emirates U23 3 1 0 2 5:4 3
4 Iraq U23 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Timor-Leste U23 3 0 0 3 3:15 0
Promotion - Asian Games 2018 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Asian Games 2018 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vietnam U23 3 3 0 0 6:0 9
2 Japan U23 3 2 0 1 5:1 6
3 Pakistan U23 3 1 0 2 2:8 3
4 Nepal U23 3 0 0 3 1:5 0
Promotion - Asian Games 2018 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Asian Games 2018 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Korea U23 3 2 0 1 8:2 6
2 Malaysia U23 3 2 0 1 7:5 6
3 Bahrain U23 3 1 1 1 5:10 4
4 Kyrgyzstan U23 3 0 1 2 3:6 1
5 United Arab Emirates U23 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Asian Games 2018 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Asian Games 2018 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Iran U23 3 1 1 1 3:2 4
2 North Korea U23 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
3 Saudi Arabia U23 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
4 Myanmar U23 3 1 1 1 3:4 4
Promotion - Asian Games 2018 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Asian Games 2018 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams