Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Japan W vs Australia W

Asia Asia

Asian Cup Women Accor Stadium, Sydney
Japan W Logo

Japan W

1 - 0
FT
Australia W Logo

Australia W

Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Hamano M.
Assist: Hasegawa Y.
57'
Sub
Ueki R. In: Matsukubo M.
Out: Ueki R.
64'
Sub
Gorry K. In: Raso H.
Out: Gorry K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Japan W
15%
Draws
36%
Australia W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Japan W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 49% — that's where the model lands on Japan W taking it.
  • Japan W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Japan W, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Japan W here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Japan W Clean Sheet 16%
Australia W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan W Australia W
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 21 20
Draws 5 2
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 2.91 2.06
Goals Conceded 0.76 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Asian Cup Women
Japan W vs Australia W
1:0
Feb 20, 2025 SheBelieves Cup Women
Japan W vs Australia W
4:0
Jul 14, 2021 Friendly International Women
Japan W vs Australia W
1:0
Aug 2, 2018 Tournament of Nations Women
Australia W vs Japan W
2:0
Apr 20, 2018 Asian Cup Women
Japan W vs Australia W
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan W Compare

Top Goalscorer Hamano M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Australia W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan W 84 / 100
Australia W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan W Australia W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Japan W scored in 85% of their last 33 outings.

Australia W let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Japan W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Japan W VS Australia W
2.88 Goals Scored 2.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan W

(Home)
21 Sept
Japan W
4 : 0
Chinese Taipei W
17 Sept
Vietnam W
0 : 8
Japan W
14 Sept
Japan W
8 : 0
Thailand W
09 Jun
Japan W
0 : 1
South Africa W
06 Jun
Japan W
5 : 0
South Africa W
Page 1 of 7

Australia W

(Away)
09 Jun
Australia W
3 : 1
Mexico W
06 Jun
Australia W
0 : 1
Mexico W
15 Apr
Kenya W
0 : 2
Australia W
11 Apr
Australia W
5 : 0
Malawi W
21 Mar
Japan W
1 : 0
Australia W
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
South Korea W 6
Uzbekistan W 0
Japan W 7
Philippines W 0
China W 2
Chinese Taipei W 0
Australia W 2
North Korea W 1
Semi-finals
South Korea W 1
Japan W 4
China W 1
Australia W 2
Final
Japan W 1
Australia W 0