Sport Picks
Match Events
55'
55'
Cruz L.
82'
82'
Fobi K.
85'
85'
Matos T.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 game between Jaraiz and Montijo finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
49%
15%
36%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jaraiz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Jaraiz come out ahead of Montijo on wins alone.
- Model gives Jaraiz a 49% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Jaraiz Clean Sheet 68%
Montijo Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Jaraiz | Montijo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 9 |
| Draws | 10 | 6 |
| Losses | 9 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.31 | 1.11 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 1.32 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 5, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Montijo
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs Jaraiz
1:0
May 11, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Montijo
1:0
Jan 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs Jaraiz
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Jaraiz Compare
Top Goalscorer Cruz L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Montijo Compare
Top Goalscorer Fobi K.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Jaraiz 50 / 100
Montijo 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Jaraiz Montijo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Jaraiz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Montijo has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.
Jaraiz scored in 79% of their last 29 games.
Games between these two average 1.75 goals.
Difficult form: Montijo registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Jaraiz VS Montijo
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Jaraiz
(Home) 19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Jaraiz
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3 Moralo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2 Pueblonuevo
24 May
CD Badajoz
2 : 0 Jaraiz
17 May
Jaraiz
1 : 0 CD Badajoz
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3 Moralo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2 Pueblonuevo
17 May
Jaraiz
1 : 0 CD Badajoz
03 May
Jaraiz
2 : 1 Cabeza del Buey
19 Apr
Jaraiz
1 : 4 CD Badajoz
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Montijo
(Away) 13 Sept
CD Azuaga
2 : 0 Montijo
06 Sept
Montijo
1 : 3 Cabeza del Buey
10 May
Montijo
2 : 1 Santa Amalia
02 May
CD Azuaga
4 : 2 Montijo
26 Apr
Montijo
0 : 1 Gevora
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
CD Azuaga
2 : 0 Montijo
02 May
CD Azuaga
4 : 2 Montijo
19 Apr
CD Calamonte
2 : 3 Montijo
05 Apr
Jaraiz
1 : 1 Montijo
22 Mar
Villanovense
3 : 1 Montijo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don Benito | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 70:22 | 71 |
| 2 | CD Badajoz | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 64:27 | 71 |
| 3 | Moralo | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 4 | CD Azuaga | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 53:31 | 62 |
| 5 | Jaraiz | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 53:33 | 59 |
| 6 | Cabeza del Buey | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 45:29 | 57 |
| 7 | SP Villafranca | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 45:40 | 55 |
| 8 | Villanovense | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 45:36 | 53 |
| 9 | Montijo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 43:42 | 46 |
| 10 | Jerez CF | 34 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 56:51 | 41 |
| 11 | AD Llerenense | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35:44 | 41 |
| 12 | Puebla de la Calzada | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35:48 | 38 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 30:52 | 34 |
| 14 | Gevora | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 32:53 | 33 |
| 15 | Pueblonuevo | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 29:55 | 33 |
| 16 | CD Diocesano | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 33:63 | 30 |
| 17 | Montehermoso | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 24:66 | 23 |
| 18 | CD Calamonte | 34 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 25:47 | 22 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
